959
FXUS62 KMHX 151124
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
724 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. A MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY, WARM, AND MOSTLY DRY TODAY
- ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS TODAY
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
THIS MORNING, THEN TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. A WARM SOUTHWEST, OR SLIGHTLY WEST, FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PLUS A WARM START TO THE DAY, SHOULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MUCH OF ENC. FOR AREA BEACHES, ESPECIALLY THE CRYSTAL COAST,
TODAY SHOULD END UP WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY WITH MORE
OF A WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAND AND NOT THE WATER. FURTHER
INLAND, THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS RIGHT AROUND PEAK HEATING,
WITH CAA OFFSETTING THE WARMTH SOME, MAKING HIGHS TODAY NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.
DESPITE THE FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING PEAK
HEATING, A LACK OF BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE, PLUS A NOTABLE
CAPPING INVERSION, SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF DEEP CONVECTION VERY
LOW (<5% CHANCE). IN FACT, GIVEN THESE FACTORS, I OPTED TO
REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST. ONE
INTERESTING NOTE, THOUGH, IS THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE DEEPLY
MIXED BOTH AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, THE COLD FRONT. AT A MINIMUM,
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25- 35 MPH ACROSS ALL OF
ENC TODAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN SUCH STRONG FORCING, AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE, THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE THESE
SHOWERS SHOULDN'T PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL, THE DEEPLY MIXED SUB-
CLOUD LAYER MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WHERE
SHOWERS FORM. IN THIS SCENARIO, WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH
APPEAR PLAUSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. THE WINDY AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. PLEASE SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND TURNING COOLER TONIGHT
A NOTICEABLY COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 AT THE
BEACHES. I TRENDED LOWS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MIXED,
AND WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS
THEY OTHERWISE COULD WITH THE EXPECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 330 AM TUE...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST BY MID-WEEK IN ANOTHER SHOT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING WHEN INTERIOR LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
SOME OF THE NORMALLY SHELTERED LOCALES MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
FROST. EACH DAY AFTER WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT MORE, WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG- RANGE GUIDANCE CONT TO POINT TO
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION. HOWEVER, 15/00Z ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE MAINLY DRY WITH THIS WEAK FRONT SINKING IN AND ENC
CONT UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDGING, THUS FAVORING CONT DRY WEATHER.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WARM
BACK ABOVE CLIMO WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO
HTS/THICKNESSES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S INTERIOR WITH 70S COAST.
MONDAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PW'S BEGIN TO
ENCROACH ON ENC FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. HAVE INTRODUCED SILENT
20% POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING (25-35KT)
- CROSSWIND IMPACTS AT EWN AND ISO THIS AFTERNOON
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY,
CROSSING ENC IN THE 15Z-21Z TIMEFRAME. MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT. BOTH AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, THE FRONT,
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30KT WILL BE COMMON. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT, A "THUMP" OF WINDS MAY DEVELOP, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
35KT POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE THE RISK OF TSRA REMAINS LOW
TODAY (<5% CHANCE), ANY SHRA THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ENHANCED WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40KT. A PERIOD OF
LOW VFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT SUB VFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. SKIES CLEAR BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY
PAST SUNSET, BUT SHOULD THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 10KT, OR SO, BY
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WED WITH VFR SKC. LIGHT
WINDS ON THU INTO FRI BEFORE WIND GUSTS INC TO AOA 20 KT AGAIN
ON SAT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY EAST ACROSS AREA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEST, AND THEN NORTHWEST,
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TO COVER THE
PERIOD OF PRE- FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED WINDS. FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT HIGHER WITH SEAS,
WHICH ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE SOUTH OF
HATTERAS, AND 3-6 FT TO THE NORTH. LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS VERY LOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WHERE SHOWERS DEVELOP, THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR AREAS OF ENHANCED WIND GUSTS OF 35KT+ (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WARMER INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS, AND THE WARMER COASTAL
WATERS). OF NOTE AS WELL, OVER THE WARMER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF HATTERAS, OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 34KT APPEAR LIKELY. FOR NOW,
WE'LL CONTINUE WITH A STRONGLY-WORDED SCA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...SCA CONDITIONS CONT WED MORNING, THOUGH WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME LIGHT BY WED EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, THEN
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WINDS INC TO
NEAR SCA LEVELS ONCE AGAIN ON SAT AS SWRLY WINDS OF 15-25 KT
WILL BE COMMON.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS ENC TODAY, LEADING
TO A SW/W TO NW WIND SHIFT. REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT,
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN AREAS WEST OF
HWY 17 BETWEEN 10AM-12PM, THEN THE HWY 17 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
12PM-3PM, AND FINALLY THE COAST/OBX BETWEEN 3PM-6PM. A WELL-
MIXED AIRMASS WILL EXIST BOTH AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, TODAY'S
FRONT, AND THIS WILL SUPPORT FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW, ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ENHANCED WIND GUSTS OF 40+ MPH. THE
CHANCE OF WETTING RAINFALL TODAY IS LESS THAN 5%. OF NOTE, TOO,
WHILE THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW, IT'S LIKELY THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT WERE TO DEVELOP WOULD BE DRY (IE. PRODUCING
LESS THAN 0.10" OF RAIN). ACTIVE GREENUP AND RECENT RAINFALL
SHOULD HELP TO OFFSET THE OTHERWISE NOTABLE WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 25% AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 25
MPH.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-152-
154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM/TL
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
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