348
FXUS62 KMHX 152206
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
606 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. A MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 605 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT ENDING BY 0Z
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY RIGHT ALONG THE NC COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY 0Z THIS EVENING. SEEING A
FLARE UP IN DEEP CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE. THESE STORMS LIKELY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KT AND
WILL BE ENDING BY 0Z AS THE FRONT PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. COLD
AIR AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IS RAMPING UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL SEE TEMPS ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST EVENING WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S. GUSTY WINDS WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP THE LOW
LEVELS MIXED ALL NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 445 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE CAA CONTINUING TO BRING GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 65-70 DEGREES. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING
IN WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS BRINGING SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM TUE...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST BY MID-WEEK IN ANOTHER SHOT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING WHEN INTERIOR LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
SOME OF THE NORMALLY SHELTERED LOCALES MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
FROST. EACH DAY AFTER WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT MORE, WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG- RANGE GUIDANCE CONT TO POINT TO
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION. HOWEVER, 15/00Z ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE MAINLY DRY WITH THIS WEAK FRONT SINKING IN AND ENC
CONT UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDGING, THUS FAVORING CONT DRY WEATHER.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WARM
BACK ABOVE CLIMO WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO
HTS/THICKNESSES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S INTERIOR WITH 70S COAST.
MONDAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PW'S BEGIN TO
ENCROACH ON ENC FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. HAVE INTRODUCED SILENT
20% POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND REDEVELOP AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY
PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAILS ACROSS RTES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WILL SOON BE OFFSHORE. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE BY 1Z. ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20-25 KT DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. LIGHT WINDS ON THU INTO FRI BEFORE WIND GUSTS INC TO
AOA 20 KT AGAIN ON SAT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MID DAY WEDNESDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY EAST ACROSS AREA WATERS EARLY
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AROUND 0Z.
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30
KT. WINDS BACK TO WESTERLY AND SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS ARE PEAKING IN THE 6-9
FT RANGE SOUTH OF HATTERAS, AND 3-6 FT TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING WITH
WESTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TO COVER THE PERIOD OF PRE-FRONTAL AND
POST- FRONTAL ELEVATED WINDS AND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS, THEN SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. WINDS INC TO NEAR SCA LEVELS ONCE AGAIN ON SAT AS
SWRLY WINDS OF 15-25 KT WILL BE COMMON.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 430 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT
WILL RELAX ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
WHILE THESE CONDITIONS BRING SOME THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, ACTIVE GREENUP AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD
HELP TO OFFSET THE OTHERWISE NOTABLE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ131-135-
150-152-154-156-158-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/SK/TL
MARINE...JME/SK/TL
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
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