129
FXUS62 KMHX 160050
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
850 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. A MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 850 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLD AIR
AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IS RAMPING UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
SEE TEMPS ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST EVENING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST TO AROUND 50 ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S. GUSTY WINDS WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECTING ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED ALL
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 445 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE CAA CONTINUING TO BRING GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 65-70 DEGREES. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING
IN WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS BRINGING SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM TUE...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST BY MID-WEEK IN ANOTHER SHOT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING WHEN INTERIOR LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
SOME OF THE NORMALLY SHELTERED LOCALES MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
FROST. EACH DAY AFTER WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT MORE, WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG- RANGE GUIDANCE CONT TO POINT TO
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION. HOWEVER, 15/00Z ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE MAINLY DRY WITH THIS WEAK FRONT SINKING IN AND ENC
CONT UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDGING, THUS FAVORING CONT DRY WEATHER.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WARM
BACK ABOVE CLIMO WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO
HTS/THICKNESSES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S INTERIOR WITH 70S COAST.
MONDAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PW'S BEGIN TO
ENCROACH ON ENC FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. HAVE INTRODUCED SILENT
20% POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND REDEVELOP AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY
PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAILS ACROSS RTES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WILL SOON BE OFFSHORE. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE BY 1Z. ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20-25 KT DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. LIGHT WINDS ON THU INTO FRI BEFORE WIND GUSTS INC TO
AOA 20 KT AGAIN ON SAT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MID DAY WEDNESDAY
A COLD FRONT HAS JUST SWEPT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS AREA WATERS
THIS EVENING.
15-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE JUST
BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT. THEN WINDS BACK TO
WEST AND SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS, SEAS ARE PEAKING IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE SOUTH OF
HATTERAS, AND 3-6 FT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TO COVER
THE PERIOD OF PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED WINDS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY AS
SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS, THEN SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. WINDS INC TO NEAR SCA LEVELS ONCE AGAIN ON SAT AS
SWRLY WINDS OF 15-25 KT WILL BE COMMON.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 430 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT
WILL RELAX ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
WHILE THESE CONDITIONS BRING SOME THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, ACTIVE GREENUP AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD
HELP TO OFFSET THE OTHERWISE NOTABLE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ131-135-
150-152-154-156-158-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/SK/TL
MARINE...JME/SK/TL
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
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