815
FXUS62 KMHX 161053
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
653 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND NOT AS WARM TODAY
DESPITE ONGOING CAA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S
COLD FRONT, HIGHS TODAY SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE
APPALACHIANS. IN LIGHT OF THIS, I LEANED TOWARDS THE NBM 75TH
PERCENTILE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. WHILE NOT
AS BREEZY AS YESTERDAY, THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS MAY ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS SOME. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD
BELOW.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE INLAND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE OBX AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE TWO
FEATURES MAKE FOR A MORE COMPLICATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TONIGHT. FOR ONE, THE HIGH WON'T BE SQUARELY OVERHEAD, WHICH
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE AT LEAST A BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY WITH THE WEAK FRONT SHIFTING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST. WHILE NORMALLY THIS WOULDN'T BE MUCH OF A
TALKING POINT, THE GRADIENT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS
AROUND 5+ MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH MAY PREVENT SOME AREAS
FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS THEY OTHERWISE COULD. I CONTINUED TO GO
BELOW NBM FOR LOWS (LEANING TOWARDS THE 10-25TH PERCENTILE OF
GUIDANCE), BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR
THE TYPICALLY COLDER/MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME, LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SEEM REASONABLE, ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY,
THOUGH, SO EVEN WHERE LOWS MANAGE TO REACH THE MID-30S, FROST
DEVELOPMENT ISN'T A CERTAINTY. FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES,
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 20-40% CHANCE OF LOWS FALLING
INTO THE 30S. THE LOWER PROBABILITY IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. REGARDLESS, LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE COAST, THE WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH MAY TEND TO
HOLD TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (IE. AROUND 50).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM WED...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST BY MID-WEEK IN ANOTHER SHOT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. EACH DAY AFTER WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT
MORE, WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG- RANGE GUIDANCE CONT TO POINT TO
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION. HOWEVER, 16/00Z ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE MAINLY DRY WITH THIS WEAK FRONT SINKING IN AND ENC CONT
UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDGING, THUS FAVORING CONT DRY WEATHER.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WARM
BACK ABOVE CLIMO WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO
HTS/THICKNESSES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S INTERIOR WITH 70S COAST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PW'S BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON ENC FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.
HAVE INTRODUCED SILENT 20% POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20-25KT TODAY
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE BY
MID- MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING ENSUES. DURING PEAK
HEATING, OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH
OF ENC. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING, AND
REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. OF NOTE, AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS. THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A BUMP UP IN WINDS ALONG
THE COAST, AND PERHAPS GIVE A LITTLE BUMP OF NORTHERLY WINDS
INLAND. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. LIGHT WINDS ON THU BEFORE WIND GUSTS INC TO AOA 20 KT
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING
- IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25KT WILL LAST FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS THIS MORNING, THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO LAY DOWN BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE AREA. BY
TONIGHT, WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL BE COMMON. THE ONE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT TONIGHT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WILL SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE ENC WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS FRONT DOESN'T LOOK
PARTICULARLY STRONG, OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT APPEAR POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON TRENDS IN MARINE OBS THIS MORNING,
I'VE OPTED TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE PAMLICO,
NEUSE, AND BAY RIVERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20KT ARE
STILL EXPECTED LATER TODAY, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25KT
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO STAY JUST BELOW
25KT. ELSEWHERE, THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR TO BE
WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL, SO NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED THERE.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT, SEAS SHOULD LAY DOWN TO 2-4 FT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS, THEN SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. WINDS INC TO NEAR SCA LEVELS ONCE AGAIN ON SAT AS
SWRLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH HIGHERS GUSTS WILL BE COMMON.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
A BREEZY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TODAY APPEARS VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH), WITH VALUES IN THE
20S/30S PERCENT EXPECTED. THE DRYNESS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. ONGOING GREENUP AND
RAINFALL LAST WEEK MAY OFFSET THIS SOME, BUT I SUSPECT THE
RECENT COUPLE OF DRY AND WARM DAYS WILL LESSEN THE IMPACT OF
LAST WEEK'S RAINFALL. SHOULD THIS PROVE TO BE THE CASE, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE RH FALL INTO THE MID 20S
THIS AFTERNOON. IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BREEZY TODAY AS
YESTERDAY, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER. EVEN LESS WIND IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE NOTABLY DRY,
WITH RH IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ131-135-150-
152-154-156-158-230-231.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM/TL
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
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