900
FXUS62 KMHX 161948
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
348 PM EDT WED APR 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1515 WEDNESDAY....HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWARD TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS AND MID- ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S ALONG THE NOBX AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE TWO FEATURES MAKE FOR A MORE COMPLICATED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. FOR ONE, THE HIGH WON'T BE
SQUARELY OVERHEAD BUT RATHER CENTERED TO THE NW OVER VA, WHICH
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE AT LEAST A BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY WITH THE WEAK FRONT SINKING S ALONG
THE COAST. WHILE NORMALLY THIS WOULDN'T BE MUCH OF A TALKING
POINT, THE GRADIENT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AROUND 5+
MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH MAY PREVENT SOME AREAS FROM
DROPPING AS LOW AS THEY OTHERWISE COULD. I CONTINUED TO GO BELOW
NBM FOR LOWS (LEANING TOWARDS THE 10-25TH PERCENTILE OF
GUIDANCE). FOR THE TYPICALLY COLDER/MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN
THIS TYPE OF REGIME, LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SEEM
REASONABLE, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. THE
AIRMASS IS VERY DRY, THOUGH, SO EVEN WHERE LOWS MANAGE TO REACH
THE MID-30S, FROST DEVELOPMENT ISN'T A CERTAINTY. FOR THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 20-40%
CHANCE OF LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S. THE LOWER PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE AS WELL AS SOME
THIN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE FA OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS,
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST. CLOSER TO THE COAST, THE WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (IE. A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 50).
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 1520 WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH STARTING JUST TO THE NW SLIDES
ESEWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO
DEPART AND MID LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES FROM THE S. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH LIGHT NEERLY WINDS BECOMING STRONGER AND ONSHORE
MID-AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZE BEGINS WORKING INLAND. SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAXTS THAN WEDNESDAY, UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE
SEABREEZE, OBX COOLER ~60. WHILE THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS BREEZY
AS YESTERDAY OR TODAY, THE DRIER AIR BEHIND TONIGHT'S SECONDARY
FRONT WILL LEAD TO LOW MINRHS THAT MAY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SOME. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION OF THE AFD BELOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM WED...
LATEWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY MID-WEEK
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EACH DAY
AFTER WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT MORE, WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG- RANGE GUIDANCE CONT TO POINT TO
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION. HOWEVER, 16/00Z ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE MAINLY DRY WITH THIS WEAK FRONT SINKING IN AND ENC CONT
UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDGING, THUS FAVORING CONT DRY WEATHER.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WARM
BACK ABOVE CLIMO WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO
HTS/THICKNESSES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S INTERIOR WITH 70S COAST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PW'S BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON ENC FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.
HAVE INTRODUCED SILENT 20% POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1300 WEDNESDAY...VFR FLIGHT CATS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DURING
PEAK HEATING, STRENGTHENING NWERLY WINDS WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF ENC. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING, AND REMAIN VARIABLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. OF NOTE, AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE S ALONG THE OBX. THIS FRONT WILL LEAD
TO A BUMP UP IN WINDS ALONG THE COAST, AND PERHAPS GIVE A
LITTLE BUMP OF NORTHERLY WINDS INLAND. MOSTLY SKC CONTINUES
EARLY THURSDAY WITH LIGHT NEERLY WINDS BECOMING E/SE IN THE
AFTERNOON ONCE SEABREEZES PUSHES THROUGH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. LIGHT WINDS ON THU BEFORE WIND GUSTS INC TO AOA 20 KT
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1530 WEDNESDAY...
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 12-20KT CURRENTLY RELAX TONIGHT,
WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL BE COMMON. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
TONIGHT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL
SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE ENC WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS FRONT DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG, OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT APPEAR POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 2-4FT SUBSIDE TO ~2FT OVERNIGHT,
BUILDING BACK TO GENERALLY 2-3FT, 4FT OVER FAR OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OFFSHORE. WINDS INC TO NEAR SCA LEVELS ONCE AGAIN ON
SAT AS SWRLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH HIGHERS GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1545 WEDNESDAY...
A BREEZY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TODAY APPEARS VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH), WITH VALUES IN THE
MID 20%S EXPECTED. THE DRYNESS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. ONGOING GREENUP AND
RAINFALL LAST WEEK MAY OFFSET THIS SOME, BUT I SUSPECT THE
RECENT COUPLE OF DRY AND WARM DAYS WILL LESSEN THE IMPACT OF
LAST WEEK'S RAINFALL. IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BREEZY TODAY
AS YESTERDAY, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER. THE TREND
CONTINUES THURS, LESS WIND BUT DRIER, MINRHS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN E/SEERLY MID-
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COAST,
ALLOWING THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION(S) TO DOMINATE THE WIND-FIELD
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...TL/CEB
MARINE...TL/CEB
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
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