313
FXUS62 KMHX 162225
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
625 PM EDT WED APR 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AS OF 625 PM WEDNESDAY....NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE S ALONG THE NOBX AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE TWO
FEATURES MAKE FOR A MORE COMPLICATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TONIGHT. FOR ONE, THE HIGH WON'T BE SQUARELY OVERHEAD BUT RATHER
CENTERED TO THE NW OVER VA, WHICH SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE AT
LEAST A BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE WEAK FRONT SINKING S ALONG THE COAST. WHILE NORMALLY
THIS WOULDN'T BE MUCH OF A TALKING POINT, THE GRADIENT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AROUND 5+ MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH
MAY PREVENT SOME AREAS FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS THEY OTHERWISE
COULD. WE CONTINUED TO GO BELOW NBM FOR LOWS (LEANING TOWARDS
THE 10-25TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE). FOR THE TYPICALLY
COLDER/MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME, LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S SEEM REASONABLE, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FROST. THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY, THOUGH, SO EVEN WHERE
LOWS MANAGE TO REACH THE MID-30S, FROST DEVELOPMENT ISN'T A
CERTAINTY. FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES, PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 20-40% CHANCE OF LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S.
THE LOWER PROBABILITY IS LIKELY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES
OUTLINED ABOVE AS WELL AS SOME THIN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE FA OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE COAST, THE WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH MAY TEND TO
HOLD TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (IE. A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF
50).
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
AS OF 1520 WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH STARTING JUST TO THE NW SLIDES
ESEWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO
DEPART AND MID LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES FROM THE S. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH LIGHT NEERLY WINDS BECOMING STRONGER AND ONSHORE
MID-AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZE BEGINS WORKING INLAND. SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAXTS THAN WEDNESDAY, UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE
SEABREEZE, OBX COOLER ~60. WHILE THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS BREEZY
AS YESTERDAY OR TODAY, THE DRIER AIR BEHIND TONIGHT'S SECONDARY
FRONT WILL LEAD TO LOW MINRHS THAT MAY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SOME. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION OF THE AFD BELOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM WED...
LATE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY MID-WEEK
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EACH
DAY AFTER WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT MORE, WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG- RANGE GUIDANCE CONT TO POINT TO
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION. HOWEVER, 16/00Z ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE MAINLY DRY WITH THIS WEAK FRONT SINKING IN AND ENC CONT
UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDGING, THUS FAVORING CONT DRY WEATHER.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WARM
BACK ABOVE CLIMO WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO
HTS/THICKNESSES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S INTERIOR WITH 70S COAST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PW'S BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON ENC FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.
HAVE INTRODUCED SILENT 20% POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR FLIGHT CATS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING BUT STILL EXPECTING
SOME LOW LEVEL MIXING DUE TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A DRY BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SKC CONTINUES EARLY
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT NEERLY WINDS BECOMING E/SE IN THE AFTERNOON
ONCE SEABREEZES PUSH THROUGH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. LIGHT WINDS ON THU BEFORE WIND GUSTS INC TO AOA 20 KT
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 PM WEDNESDAY...
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT CURRENTLY RELAX OVERNIGHT,
TO 10-15KT. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT TONIGHT IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE
ENC WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS
FRONT DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG, OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
ARE EXPECTED EARLY THU AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 2-4FT SUBSIDE TO ~2FT OVERNIGHT,
BUILDING BACK TO GENERALLY 2-3FT, 4FT OVER FAR OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OFFSHORE. WINDS INC TO NEAR SCA LEVELS ONCE AGAIN ON
SAT AS SWRLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH HIGHERS GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1545 WEDNESDAY...
A BREEZY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TODAY APPEARS VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH), WITH VALUES IN THE
MID 20%S EXPECTED. THE DRYNESS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. ONGOING GREENUP AND
RAINFALL LAST WEEK MAY OFFSET THIS SOME, BUT I SUSPECT THE
RECENT COUPLE OF DRY AND WARM DAYS WILL LESSEN THE IMPACT OF
LAST WEEK'S RAINFALL. IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BREEZY TODAY
AS YESTERDAY, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER. THE TREND
CONTINUES THURS, LESS WIND BUT DRIER, MINRHS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN E/SEERLY MID-
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COAST,
ALLOWING THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION(S) TO DOMINATE THE WIND-FIELD
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/JME/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...JME/TL/CEB
MARINE...JME/TL/CEB
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
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