967
FXUS62 KMHX 170524
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
124 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 915 PM WEDNESDAY....NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE S ALONG THE NOBX AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE TWO
FEATURES MAKE FOR A MORE COMPLICATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TONIGHT. FOR ONE, THE HIGH WON'T BE SQUARELY OVERHEAD BUT RATHER
CENTERED TO THE NW OVER VA, WHICH SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE AT
LEAST A BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE WEAK FRONT SINKING S ALONG THE COAST. WHILE NORMALLY
THIS WOULDN'T BE MUCH OF A TALKING POINT, THE GRADIENT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH BETWEEN
8-10Z AFTER THE BOUNDARY PASSES. THIS MAY PREVENT SOME AREAS
FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS THEY OTHERWISE COULD. WE CONTINUED TO GO
BELOW NBM FOR LOWS (LEANING TOWARDS THE 10-25TH PERCENTILE OF
GUIDANCE). FOR THE TYPICALLY COLDER/MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN
THIS TYPE OF REGIME, LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SEEM
REASONABLE, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. THE
AIRMASS IS VERY DRY, THOUGH, SO EVEN WHERE LOWS MANAGE TO REACH
THE MID-30S, FROST DEVELOPMENT ISN'T A CERTAINTY. FOR THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 20-40%
CHANCE OF LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S. THE LOWER PROBABILITY IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE AS WELL AS SOME
THIN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE FA OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS,
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST. CLOSER TO THE COAST, THE WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (IE. A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 50).
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 1520 WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH STARTING JUST TO THE NW SLIDES
ESEWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO
DEPART AND MID LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES FROM THE S. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH LIGHT NEERLY WINDS BECOMING STRONGER AND ONSHORE
MID-AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZE BEGINS WORKING INLAND. SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAXTS THAN WEDNESDAY, UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE
SEABREEZE, OBX COOLER ~60. WHILE THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS BREEZY
AS YESTERDAY OR TODAY, THE DRIER AIR BEHIND TONIGHT'S SECONDARY
FRONT WILL LEAD TO LOW MINRHS THAT MAY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SOME. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION OF THE AFD BELOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 3 PM WED...
LATE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY MID-WEEK
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EACH
DAY AFTER WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT MORE, WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG- RANGE GUIDANCE CONT TO POINT TO
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION. HOWEVER, 16/00Z ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE MAINLY DRY WITH THIS WEAK FRONT SINKING IN AND ENC CONT
UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDGING, THUS FAVORING CONT DRY WEATHER.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WARM
BACK ABOVE CLIMO WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO
HTS/THICKNESSES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S INTERIOR WITH 70S COAST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PW'S BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON ENC FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.
HAVE INTRODUCED SILENT 20% POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH ENC
OVERNIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
DAILY SEABREEZE ADVANCES INLAND THROUGH ALL OF ENC. IN THE WAKE
OF THE SEABREEZE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE,
WHICH MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR BR/MIFG THURSDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW,
THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS LOW (<10% CHANCE).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. LIGHT WINDS INC TO AOA 20 KT AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT CURRENTLY RELAX OVERNIGHT, TO
10-15KT. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT TONIGHT IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE
ENC WATERS LATE TONIGHT AFTER 9Z INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WHILE THIS FRONT DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG, OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THU AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 2-4FT SUBSIDE TO ~2FT OVERNIGHT,
BUILDING BACK TO GENERALLY 2-3FT, AND TO 4FT OVER FAR OUTER
WATERS THU.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OFFSHORE. WINDS INC TO NEAR SCA LEVELS ONCE AGAIN ON
SAT AS SWRLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH HIGHERS GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1545 WEDNESDAY...
A BREEZY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TODAY APPEARS VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH), WITH VALUES IN THE
MID 20%S EXPECTED. THE DRYNESS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. ONGOING GREENUP AND
RAINFALL LAST WEEK MAY OFFSET THIS SOME, BUT I SUSPECT THE
RECENT COUPLE OF DRY AND WARM DAYS WILL LESSEN THE IMPACT OF
LAST WEEK'S RAINFALL. IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BREEZY TODAY
AS YESTERDAY, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER. THE TREND
CONTINUES THURS, LESS WIND BUT DRIER, MINRHS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN E/SEERLY MID-
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COAST,
ALLOWING THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION(S) TO DOMINATE THE WIND-FIELD
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/JME/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...JME/TL/CEB
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
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