751
FXUS62 KMHX 170817
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
417 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TODAY
- MILD TEMPERATURES INLAND, BUT COOLER ALONG THE OBX
A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE
ENC COAST THIS MORNING. FOR MOST, THIS SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH
LITTLE TO NO FANFARE. HOWEVER, ALONG THE OBX, THE INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BREEZY AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE REST OF ENC. THERE,
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 60, WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND 70S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- NOT AS COOL TONIGHT, WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S SEABREEZE, A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HELP TO DRAW A MORE MOIST AIRMASS NORTH INTO ENC THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW PATCHY, SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP FOR
SOME, ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF IMPACTFUL FOG IS VERY LOW (<10%
CHANCE). ONE FACTOR THAT IS LIKELY TO OFFSET THE FOG POTENTIAL
IS AN AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE STREAMING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A DAMPENING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WHILE THE CLOUDS WILL HELP OFFSET THE FOG
POTENTIAL, THEY SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
AS MUCH AS THEY OTHERWISE COULD. IN LIGHT OF THIS, LOWS TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3:30 AM THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A LINGERING FRONT WILL BRING MULTIPLE
DAYS OF LOW-END RAIN CHANCES.
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE HEIGHTS OVER
ENC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST. THESE FEATURES
WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
COASTAL PLAIN HIGHS NEAR 80 AND OBX HIGHS NEAR 70 ON FRIDAY WILL
INCREASE TO THE MID-80S AND MID-70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE
NEARLY A COPY/PASTE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
THE COAST POTENTIALLY WARMING UP JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY, A
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS THAT WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LINGERS IN THE AREA. PWATS
RAMP UP TO OVER 1.5" MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO ENC, MOST OF WHICH IS SUFFERING
FROM MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR 80
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOW- TO MID-70S AT THE BEACHES.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH ENC
OVERNIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
DAILY SEABREEZE ADVANCES INLAND THROUGH ALL OF ENC. IN THE WAKE
OF THE SEABREEZE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE,
WHICH MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR BR/MIFG THURSDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW,
THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS LOW (<10% CHANCE).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 KT EACH
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS INTRODUCED
DUE TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
ENC WATERS THIS MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST BUMP UP IN
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (10-20KT). LOOKING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF VIRGINIA, THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN WINDS QUITE YET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING THE BUMP UP IN WINDS WITH THIS FRONT.
REGARDLESS, MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
FRONT. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 1-3 FT THIS MORNING MAY
BUILD TO 2-4 FT IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
SEAS THEN LAY BACK DOWN TO 1-3 FT BY TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3:15 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OFF
THE NC COAST ON FRIDAY, VEERING THE WINDS TO THE SSW AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH BUILDING 2-3 FT SEAS. WINDS
REMAIN SWERLY ON SATURDAY BUT INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ENC BECOMES PINCHED BETWEEN THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS (25+ KT), BUT ALL WATERS WILL BE NEAR
SCA CRITERIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DURING THIS TIME,
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT (5 FT NEAR GULF STREAM). THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SUNDAY WITH SW WINDS AT 10-15 KT, GUSTS
NEAR 15-20 KT, AND 2-3 FT SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
A WEAK, AND DRY, COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
ENC THIS MORNING, WITH A BUMP UP IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE.
INLAND, THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY, WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(RH) EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S PERCENT. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, THE SEABREEZE WILL ADVANCE INLAND ALL
THE WAY THROUGH ENC, AND IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
SHIFT AND HIGHER RH. DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY, THE
LACK OF STRONGER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FIRE CONCERNS. FOR ANY ONGOING,
OR PLANNED, BURNS, PLEASE BE MINDFUL OF THE NE TO SE WIND SHIFT WITH
THE SEABREEZE TODAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...RM/OJC
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
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