988
FXUS62 KMHX 180240
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1040 PM EDT THU APR 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 1930 THURSDAY...
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS
BROAD RIDGING BUILDS OVER SECONUS, FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BUT WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TOMORROW. COASTAL ENC REMAINS UNDER
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SEABREEZE, WHICH HAS PROVIDED A
MOISTURE UPTICK IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT WHILE INLAND REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM, AND THERE IS A RISK OF SPOTTY FOG. BAND
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY STREAMING OVER THE SERN
ZONES OF THE FA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEWARD AND MAY PLAY SPOILER TO
MORE WIDESPREAD FORMATION, AND THEREFORE WIDESPREAD FOG CHANCES
REMAIN LOW (UNDER 35%). WITH THAT SAID, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AREAS JUST TO OUR SW FOGGING UP REALLY WELL IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS DUE TO LONGER DURATION SKC ALLOWING FOR STRONGER
COOLING EARLIER. BUT, THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS SQUEEZING THROUGH FLOW ABOUT THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE TROUGH ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT UP
THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL GIVE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SWERN ZONES (MAINLY DUPLIN AND ONSLOW COS) TO COOL MORE AND
SHRINK THE TD DEPRESSION. BECAUSE OF THE ADDED MOISTURE,
CLEARING SKIES, AND WINDS LIKELY TO FLIRT WITH GOING COMPLETELY
CALM, AS WELL AS SOME LINGERING SMOKE FROM PREVIOUS PRESCRIBED
BURNS IN THE AREA PROVIDING MORE CONDENSATION NUCLEI, HAVE OPTED
TO ADD MENTION OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AREAS OUTLINED
ABOVE. THE CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE KEEPS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WARMER THAN LIST NIGHT BUT STILL RELATIVELY MILD IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
AS OF 2240 THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE, RESULTING IN WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, REACHING
AROUND 80 INLAND AND 70S ALONG AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPROVE; SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 3:30 PM THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A LINGERING FRONT WILL BRING MULTIPLE
DAYS OF LOW-END RAIN CHANCES.
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE HEIGHTS
OVER ENC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST. THESE
FEATURES WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. COASTAL PLAIN HIGHS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID-80S
AND MID-70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE NEARLY A COPY/PASTE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST POTENTIALLY
WARMING UP JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY, A
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS THAT WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LINGERS IN THE AREA. PWATS
RAMP UP TO OVER 1.5" MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO ENC, MOST OF WHICH IS SUFFERING
FROM MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR 80
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOW- TO MID-70S AT THE BEACHES.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1930 THURSDAY...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE ECONUS
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS VEERING TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SEA BREEZES GRADUALLY MIGRATE
INLAND, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BRIEF GUSTY PERIODS, ESPECIALLY
AT OAJ AND EWN. IN THE WAKE OF THE SEABREEZE, LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, WHICH MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR
BR/MIFG TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOST FAVOR AREAS SOUTH
AND WEST OF OAJ, BUT DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF MIFG AT SAID
TERMINAL GIVEN LAMP PROBABILITIES (UNDER 30%). TDS OVER THE LAST
2HRS HAVE SEEN A MARKED INCREASE THANKS TO THE SEABREEZE, HIGHER
THAN WHAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. THIS
GIVES THE FOG POTENTIAL A LITTLE MORE CREDENCE, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS DECOUPLE. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR FOG GROUP FOR OAJ IN
EARLY MORNING HOURS. TRANSITORY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PLAY SPOILER IN MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.
BREEZY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WARM
SWERLY INCREASES. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FRI
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 KT EACH
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS INTRODUCED
DUE TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM THU...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ONGOING TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW IS
GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER ONSLOW BAY IN RESPONSE TO SEA BREEZE ADVANCING INLAND. FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE, REMAINING AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS THANKS TO FUNNELING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
ALLIGATOR RIVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFELY BELOW SCA THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AND SEAS WILL STAY AT 3 FT OR LESS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3:15 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OFF
THE NC COAST ON FRIDAY, VEERING THE WINDS TO THE SSW AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH BUILDING 2-3 FT SEAS. WINDS
REMAIN SWERLY ON SATURDAY BUT INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ENC BECOMES PINCHED BETWEEN THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS (25+ KT), BUT ALL WATERS WILL BE NEAR
SCA CRITERIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DURING THIS TIME,
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT (5 FT NEAR GULF STREAM). THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SUNDAY WITH SW WINDS AT 10-15 KT, GUSTS
NEAR 15-20 KT, AND 2-3 FT SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 2230 THURSDAY...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT SET TO CROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE STALLING AND
LINGER NEAR OR OVER THE AREA FOR THE BULK OF THE UPCOMING WEEK,
LEADING TO AT LEAST A A SCHC POP FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING
THAT TIME.
MINRHS FRI MID 30%S INLAND, 50%S IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS START
SERLY, 5-7KT EARLY, STRENGTHENING TO 10-15G20KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...CEB/OJC
MARINE...MS/OJC
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
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