599
FXUS62 KMHX 180556
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
156 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY...
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AS BROAD RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TOMORROW.
ENC REMAINS UNDER BROAD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, ALTHOUGH ADVANCING
SEABREEZE IS USHERING IN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS IT
SLOWLY ADVANCES INLAND.
SEABREEZE WILL CONTINUE ITS SOJOURN INLAND THROUGH THE EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM, AND THERE IS A RISK OF SPOTTY FOG.
BAND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVERHEAD AND MAY PLAY SPOILER TO MORE
WIDESPREAD FORMATION, AND THEREFORE FOG CHANCES REMAIN LOW
(UNDER 20%). THE CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE KEEPS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/
AS OF 405 PM THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE, RESULTING IN WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, REACHING
AROUND 80 INLAND AND 70S ALONG AREA BEACHES.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 3:30 AM THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A LINGERING FRONT WILL BRING MULTIPLE
DAYS OF LOW-END RAIN CHANCES.
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE HEIGHTS
OVER ENC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST. THESE
FEATURES WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. COASTAL PLAIN HIGHS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID-80S
AND MID-70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE NEARLY A COPY/PASTE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST POTENTIALLY
WARMING UP JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY, A
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS THAT WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LINGERS IN THE AREA. PWATS
RAMP UP TO OVER 1.5" MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO ENC, MOST OF WHICH IS SUFFERING
FROM MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR 80
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOW- TO MID-70S AT THE BEACHES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1:30 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE REGION. SEVERAL OBS ACROSS ENC ARE SHOWING DECOUPLED
CONDITIONS AND WITH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SEABREEZE, SOME BR/MIFG IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL FOG IS LOW, OAJ STANDS
THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING BR/MIFG BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING.
IF ANY FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 KT EACH
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS INTRODUCED
DUE TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM THU...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ONGOING TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW IS
GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER ONSLOW BAY IN RESPONSE TO SEA BREEZE ADVANCING INLAND. FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE, REMAINING AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS THANKS TO FUNNELING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
ALLIGATOR RIVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFELY BELOW SCA THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AND SEAS WILL STAY AT 3 FT OR LESS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3:15 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OFF
THE NC COAST ON FRIDAY, VEERING THE WINDS TO THE SSW AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH BUILDING 2-3 FT SEAS. WINDS
REMAIN SWERLY ON SATURDAY BUT INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ENC BECOMES PINCHED BETWEEN THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS (25+ KT), BUT ALL WATERS WILL BE NEAR
SCA CRITERIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DURING THIS TIME,
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT (5 FT NEAR GULF STREAM). THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SUNDAY WITH SW WINDS AT 10-15 KT, GUSTS
NEAR 15-20 KT, AND 2-3 FT SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
A WEAK, AND DRY, COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
ENC THIS MORNING, WITH A BUMP UP IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE.
INLAND, THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY, WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(RH) EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S PERCENT. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, THE SEABREEZE WILL ADVANCE INLAND ALL
THE WAY THROUGH ENC, AND IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
SHIFT AND HIGHER RH. DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY, THE
LACK OF STRONGER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FIRE CONCERNS. FOR ANY ONGOING,
OR PLANNED, BURNS, PLEASE BE MINDFUL OF THE NE TO SE WIND SHIFT WITH
THE SEABREEZE TODAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...MS/OJC
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
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