066
FXUS62 KMHX 181351
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES ALREADY RISING QUICKLY THIS
MORNING UNDERNEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OVERHEAD TODAY
WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. INCREASING
HEIGHTS, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY
WERE YESTERDAY IN SOME AREAS. THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN WILL TOP
OUT IN THE LOW-80S WITH THE BEACHES JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN
THE MID-70S THANKS TO THE SEABREEZE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
AS OF 3:40 AM FRIDAY...WITH 5-10 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS KEEPING
US MIXED OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL BE MILD AT AROUND 60 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FA. THE WIND WILL ALSO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THIS WEEKEND
- WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
SYNOPTICALLY, THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK
MORE RESEMBLES THAT OF A MID TO LATE SUMMER SETUP, WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RIDGING DOMINATING. HOWEVER, IT'S A
SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH EARLY SPRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
(OFTEN LOWER THAN THE SUMMER).
OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN, IT'S EXPECTED THAT THE MODEST INCREASE IN
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WON'T BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE VERY WARM
TEMPS ALOFT AND STRONG CAP IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF
CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM, BOTH ALONG THE DAILY SEABREEZE AND ALONG A
FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN/FLATTEN
SOME, ALLOWING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITHIN THIS FLOW, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND
VIRGINIA. AS IS TO BE EXPECTED, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERS QUITE
A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT ON ANY GIVEN DAY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN, TEMPS ALOFT AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION. WITH
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC, AND A
WEAKER CAP, THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT POINTS NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RISK
LIKELY FOCUSED WHEREVER THE FRONT RESIDES ON THAT PARTICULAR DAY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, WE WILL HAVE SUMMER TIME DEEP LAYER SHEAR (15-
25KT), WHICH DOESN'T FAVOR MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS A LOWER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, THOUGH, ANY
MOISTURE WILL BE WELCOMED. WHILE GUIDANCE DIFFER ON WHERE THE FRONT
WILL BE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, THE MOST SOLID SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVERHEAD, AND A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME, ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. OF NOTE, THE TIGHTENED THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG, AND JUST INLAND, OF
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REFLECT THE 75TH PERCENTILE
OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE. BY SUNDAY, THE WARMTH
CONTINUES, BUT A FRONT DIPPING INTO THE AREA MAY LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NOT BEING QUITE AS WARM, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OBX AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND VICINITY THANKS TO A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW. THE
COASTAL PLAN AND CRYSTAL COAST AREAS STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1:30 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE REGION. SEVERAL OBS ACROSS ENC ARE SHOWING DECOUPLED
CONDITIONS AND WITH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SEABREEZE, SOME BR/MIFG IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL FOG IS LOW, OAJ STANDS
THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING BR/MIFG BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING.
IF ANY FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SW WINDS SATURDAY
- TSRA AND SUB-VFR RISK LIKELY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND, MOST LIKELY, ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, BY NEXT WEEK, A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. ALONG THIS FRONT, THERE
WILL BE A RISK OF SHRA, TSRA, AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT, AND WHEN THE GREATEST IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE, IS LESS
CERTAIN. PRIOR TO THEN, THE OTHER MAIN AVIATION IMPACT LOOKS TO BE
GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3:45 AM FRIDAY...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TODAY, 5-10 KT SEERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KT AS THEY VEER TO THE SW. GUSTY
SWERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS (3-4 FT NEAR THE GULF STREAM).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY
- WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEK WITH LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING
WINDS, WAVES, AND THUNDERSTORMS
A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY, WITH A PERIOD OF 20-
25KT WINDS LIKELY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. ON SUNDAY, A FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTH
INTO THE AREA WITH A REDUCED GRADIENT. THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT, THOUGH. THIS FRONT THEN WAFFLES NORTH TO SOUTH
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, MAKING THE WIND FORECAST LESS CERTAIN ON ANY
GIVEN DAY. THAT FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A MODEST INCREASE IN THE RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 3-5FT ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SEAS
THEN LAY DOWN TO 2-3 FT BY SUNDAY. SEAS NEXT WEEK ARE LESS CERTAIN
AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT IS EACH DAY, AND HOW STRONG
THE GRADIENT IS AROUND IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...RM/OJC
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