541
FXUS62 KMHX 190530
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
130 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK,
KEEPING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW DAYS.
NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/
AS OF 2200 FRIDAY...SUB-TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SECONUS AS STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM
S-SWERLY FLOW.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH
ANCHORS OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
RISE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT AROUND
5-10 KT, KEEPING LOW-LEVELS MIXED AND TEMPS MUCH MILDER IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. DESPITE STEADILY INCREASING MOISTURE,
WIND WILL KEEP FOG RISK NEAR ZERO.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT
TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXPANDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GULF
STATES. ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED UNDER PRIMARILY
SUNNY SKIES, BUT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE. FORECAST AVERAGE
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES OF NEAR 1400 M WITH LARGELY UNIMPEDED
INSOLATION POINTS TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND, MID
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACH.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THIS WEEKEND
- WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
SYNOPTICALLY, THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK
MORE RESEMBLES THAT OF A MID TO LATE SUMMER SETUP, WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RIDGING DOMINATING. HOWEVER, IT'S A
SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH EARLY SPRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
(OFTEN LOWER THAN THE SUMMER).
OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN, IT'S EXPECTED THAT THE MODEST INCREASE IN
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WON'T BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE VERY WARM
TEMPS ALOFT AND STRONG CAP IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF
CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM, BOTH ALONG THE DAILY SEABREEZE AND ALONG A
FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN/FLATTEN
SOME, ALLOWING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITHIN THIS FLOW, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND
VIRGINIA. AS IS TO BE EXPECTED, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERS QUITE
A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT ON ANY GIVEN DAY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN, TEMPS ALOFT AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION. WITH
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC, AND A
WEAKER CAP, THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT POINTS NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RISK
LIKELY FOCUSED WHEREVER THE FRONT RESIDES ON THAT PARTICULAR DAY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, WE WILL HAVE SUMMER TIME DEEP LAYER SHEAR (15-
25KT), WHICH DOESN'T FAVOR MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS A LOWER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, THOUGH, ANY
MOISTURE WILL BE WELCOMED. WHILE GUIDANCE DIFFER ON WHERE THE FRONT
WILL BE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, THE MOST SOLID SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
BY SUNDAY, THE WARMTH CONTINUES, BUT A FRONT DIPPING INTO THE
AREA MAY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES NOT BEING QUITE AS WARM,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OBX AND ALBEMARLE SOUND VICINITY THANKS TO
A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW. THE COASTAL PLAN AND CRYSTAL COAST AREAS
STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUN/...
AS OF 1:30 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FLIGHT CATS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (10-15G20KT) AND DIURNAL CU. AS A
FRONT BEGINS TO SINK SOUTH TOMORROW NIGHT, HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SW WINDS SATURDAY
- TSRA AND SUB-VFR RISK LIKELY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, BY NEXT WEEK, A
WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. ALONG THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF
SHRA, TSRA, AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT,
AND WHEN THE GREATEST IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE, IS LESS
CERTAIN. PRIOR TO THEN, THE OTHER MAIN AVIATION IMPACT LOOKS TO
BE GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2200 FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OFFSHORE LEADS TO
S-SWERLY WINDS 10-15G20KT. MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET FOR
NOW ACROSS AREA WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE.
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT TOMORROW WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN WINDS
SATURDAY, REACHING UP TO 20 KT SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY N OF LOOKOUT.
SCA HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL OFFSHORE WATERS N OF LOOKOUT, AS
WELL ALL SOUNDSIDE WATERS FROM PAMLICO SOUND NWARD. INLAND
RIVERS WERE EXCLUDED, ALTHOUGH STRONG DIURNAL GUSTS OVER LAND
MAY BRIEFLY BLEED OVER WATERS, BEST CHANCE FOR INLAND RIVERS
SEEING 25KT GUSTS WOULD BE THE SW-NE ORIENTED PORTION OF THE
NEUSE APPROACHING THE PAMSOUND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEK WITH LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING
WINDS, WAVES, AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY, A FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH
A REDUCED GRADIENT. THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT, THOUGH. THIS FRONT THEN WAFFLES NORTH TO SOUTH EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK, MAKING THE WIND FORECAST LESS CERTAIN ON ANY GIVEN
DAY. THAT FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A MODEST INCREASE IN THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SEAS THEN LAY DOWN TO 2-3 FT BY SUNDAY. SEAS NEXT WEEK ARE LESS
CERTAIN AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT IS EACH DAY,
AND HOW STRONG THE GRADIENT IS AROUND IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ135-150-152-154-156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...RM/CEB
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