769
FXUS62 KMHX 191404
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1004 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK,
KEEPING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW DAYS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1005 AM SATURDAY...FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE THIS
MORNING WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH EXPANDING WESTWARD
OVER ENC. ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS IS IN STORE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM SOME DIURNAL CU, THERE WON'T BE MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN
TERMS OF CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL AID TEMPS IN REACHING THE
UPPER-80S INLAND AND MID-70S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
AS OF 3:30 AM SATURDAY...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-60S ACROSS THE FA. CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO DROP TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MOISTENING, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5-10 MPH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 235 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
- WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
SYNOPTICALLY, THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK
MORE RESEMBLES THAT OF A MID TO LATE SUMMER SETUP, WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RIDGING DOMINATING. HOWEVER, IT'S A
SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH EARLY SPRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
(OFTEN LOWER THAN THE SUMMER).
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, THEN, IT'S EXPECTED THAT THE
MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WON'T BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM, BOTH ALONG
THE DAILY SEABREEZE AND ALONG A FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO DIP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE MOVE INTO
NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN/FLATTEN SOME,
ALLOWING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITHIN THIS FLOW, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND
VIRGINIA. AS IS TO BE EXPECTED, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERS
QUITE A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT ON ANY GIVEN DAY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN, TEMPS ALOFT AREN'T EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE AS WARM, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A WEAKER CAPPING
INVERSION. WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE
ATLANTIC, AND A WEAKER CAP, THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A MODEST
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT POINTS
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RISK LIKELY FOCUSED WHEREVER THE FRONT
RESIDES ON THAT PARTICULAR DAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WE WILL HAVE
SUMMER TIME DEEP LAYER SHEAR (15- 25KT), WHICH DOESN'T FAVOR
MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
ALSO FAVORS A LOWER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, THOUGH, ANY MOISTURE WILL BE
WELCOMED. WHILE GUIDANCE DIFFER ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE EACH
DAY NEXT WEEK, THE MOST SOLID SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE IN THE LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
ON SUNDAY, THE WARMTH CONTINUES, BUT A FRONT DIPPING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA MAY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES NOT BEING QUITE AS WARM,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OBX AND ALBEMARLE SOUND VICINITY THANKS TO
A COOLER EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. THE COASTAL PLAN AND CRYSTAL
COAST AREAS STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUN/...
AS OF 1:30 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FLIGHT CATS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (10-15G20KT) AND DIURNAL CU. AS A
FRONT BEGINS TO SINK SOUTH TOMORROW NIGHT, HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- TSRA AND SUB-VFR RISK LIKELY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, BY NEXT WEEK, A
WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH BETWEEN
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. IN VICINITY OF THIS FRONT, THERE
WILL BE A RISK OF SHRA, TSRA, AND BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, AND WHEN THE GREATEST IMPACT TO
AVIATION WILL BE, IS LESS CERTAIN BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE MID
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3:40 AM SATURDAY...A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
CAUSE AN UPTICK IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WHICH WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 20-25 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT, THE PAMLICO SOUND, AND THE
NORTHERN RIVERS AND SOUNDS (SCA IN EFFECT). IT'S POSSIBLE,
HOWEVER, THAT THE INLAND RIVERS SEE OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUTHS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEK WITH LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING
WINDS, WAVES, AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY, A FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH
A REDUCED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
EASTERLY WIND SHIFT, THOUGH. THIS FRONT THEN MEANDERS NORTH TO
SOUTH EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, MAKING THE WIND FORECAST LESS CERTAIN
ON ANY GIVEN DAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A MODEST INCREASE
IN THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT ON SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS NEXT WEEK ARE
SOMEWHAT CERTAIN AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT IS
EACH DAY, AND HOW STRONG THE GRADIENT IS AROUND IT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 KT AND SEAS
2-4 FT THROUGH WED.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-
154-156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RM/JME
AVIATION...JME/OJC
MARINE...JME/OJC
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