088
FXUS62 KMHX 200135
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
935 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT. NEXT NOTABLE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR
NEAR THE AREA MIDWEEK, KEEPING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR A FEW DAYS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 930 PM SAT...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD OVERNIGHT, FURTHER COMPLIMENTED BY A STEADY
INCREASE IN MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. LIKE LAST NIGHT, WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT A STEADY 5-10 MPH AND KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY DESPITE
A FURTHER RISE IN SURFACE TDS. WE WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY CLOSER
TO THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT, WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH
EXPECTED FROM THE CRYSTAL COAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OUTER
BANKS BEFORE A MORE MARKED DROP OFF TOWARD SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
AS OF 310 PM SAT...DAY STARTS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A BACKDOOR FRONT, TIED TO LOW
PRESSURE EXITING EASTERN CANADA, GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE
REGION. THERE IS SOME MODEST SPREAD IN HI-RES GUIDANCE ON WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION, BUT THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, BRINGING WITH IT A NOTICEABLE
COOL DOWN FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264. STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT, AND
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
HIGHS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO TODAY'S, IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND
70S ALONG THE COAST. NORTHERN OBX WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER AS THE FRONT CROSSES IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 235 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
- WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
SYNOPTICALLY, THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK
MORE RESEMBLES THAT OF A MID TO LATE SUMMER SETUP, WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RIDGING DOMINATING. HOWEVER, IT'S A
SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH EARLY SPRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
(OFTEN LOWER THAN THE SUMMER).
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BREAK
DOWN/FLATTEN SOME, ALLOWING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. WITHIN THIS FLOW, A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH
BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. AS IS TO BE EXPECTED,
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERS QUITE A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THIS FRONT ON ANY GIVEN DAY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN, TEMPS ALOFT AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS WARM, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION. WITH CONTINUED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC, AND A WEAKER CAP,
THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT POINTS NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RISK
LIKELY FOCUSED WHEREVER THE FRONT RESIDES ON THAT PARTICULAR
DAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WE WILL HAVE SUMMER TIME DEEP LAYER
SHEAR (15- 25KT), WHICH DOESN'T FAVOR MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS A LOWER RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
THOUGH, ANY MOISTURE WILL BE WELCOMED. WHILE GUIDANCE DIFFER ON
WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, THE MOST SOLID
SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE IN THE LATE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 0Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
REMAIN STEADY AT 5-10 KT WITH STEADILY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY STARTS WITH WEAKER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A
FRONT BEGINS TO SINK SOUTH, WEAKENING AND THEN VEERING EASTERLY
AS FRONT STALLS OVER ENC BY NIGHTFALL SUNDAY. JUST BEYOND OUR
TAF FORECAST, LOW CONFIDENCE IN SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z, BEHIND THIS FRONT ALL TERMINALS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- TSRA AND SUB-VFR RISK LIKELY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK
BY NEXT WEEK, A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NORTH AND
SOUTH BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. IN VICINITY OF THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SHRA, TSRA, AND BRIEF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, AND WHEN THE
GREATEST IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE, IS LESS CERTAIN BUT STILL
APPEARS TO BE MID NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SAT...WE CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN THE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING WHICH ALLOWED US TO LET THE
SCA EXPIRE ON TIME FOR THE CROATAN, ROANOKE SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR
RIVER. STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS NEAR OR AROUND 25 KTS OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND DIAMOND. WITH OBS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE ALSO
SHOWING WINDS NEAR 25 KTS OVER THE OUTER BANKS, CURRENT END TIME
OF 06Z FOR THE SCA LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
TOMORROW, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIP ACROSS AREA
WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE A
MODEST EASTERLY SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY OF 10-15 KT, BUT NO
SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. SEAS PEAK AT
AROUND 5 FEET THIS EVENING, FALLING TO 2-3 FEET BY SUN
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEK WITH LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING
WINDS, WAVES, AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MEANDERS NORTH TO SOUTH EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK, MAKING THE WIND FORECAST LESS CERTAIN ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A MODEST INCREASE IN THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS NEXT WEEK ARE SOMEWHAT CERTAIN AND WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT IS EACH DAY, AND HOW STRONG THE
GRADIENT IS AROUND IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT
WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH WED.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-
154-156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...EH/MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...JME/RJ
AVIATION...EH/JME
MARINE...JME/MS
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