163
FXUS62 KMHX 031350
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
950 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST THROUGH
LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, BREEZY, AND VERY WARM SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A NOTABLE MID-LEVEL DRY LAYER
ALOFT, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT
TIGHT, BUT A STRENGTHENING SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MOVE
INLAND FAIRLY QUICKLY, AND WINDS WITHING WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
TO 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT
- STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO OCCLUDE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A POTENT CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
OCCLUSION OF THE SFC LOW SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWING OF AN
EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A MODERATELY STRONG LLJ IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. IT'S EXPECTED
THAT THE STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OFFSET THE
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION, LEADING TO GRADUALLY
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE END RESULT SHOULD
BE A INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND LOW-
LEVEL HELICITY, IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30-40KT IN TANDEM
WITH THE SLOWLY-BUILDING INSTABILITY, AND THIS MAY SUPPORT A
VERY CONDITIONAL RISK OF A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER,
IT'S UNCLEAR HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT,
AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS QUITE A BIT. WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY
IS AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN THANKS TO MODEST INSTABILITY,
STRONG LIFT, AND PWATS INCREASING TO 1.50".
WHILE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, HIGHEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT
WHERE THE LLJ AND FORCING OVERLAP. A MESSY LINEAR STORM MODE
SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT LINE. COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST, WITH SEVERE PARAMETERS LESS IMPRESSIVE.
THIS KEEPS THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 17 THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS,
ALTHOUGH WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND FASTER STORM MOTION
FLASH FLOODING THREAT REMAINS LOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND BRINGS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO ENC INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACHING ENC SUNDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE EAST
COAST INTO TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS ENC SUNDAY WITH PW
VALUES PEAKING AROUND 1.3-1.5". DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES JUST
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING
ENSUING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS WITH SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY AMONG GUIDANCE BUT
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS AROUND A HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND POTENTIALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF DEEPER
MOISTURE PUSHES TO THE EAST EARLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WHEN WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING
EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY: AN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN EJECTING THE UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY
BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE MOVE TO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM
LEADING BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY
- FLIGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE DRY AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION BUT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ONCE AGAIN, GUSTING UP TO
25 KT AT TIMES AND UP TO 25-30KT OBX. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 03Z SUN BRINGING
THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN, AND GUSTIER WINDS. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY ALSO DROP TO SUB- VFR WITH THE
CONVECTION. BY 12Z SUNDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
DRAPED OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND ZONES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SATURDAY...PERIODS SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AND UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING THE THREAT OF OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING PRED VFR CONDITIONS BUT COULD SEE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RISK OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
- INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING
WINDS CURRENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH 10-20KT EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
THEN STEADILY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A STRONGER
GRADIENT DEVELOPS EAST OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING TO THE WEST OF
ENC. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT STRONGER ON SATURDAY
THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME. IN LIGHT OF ALL OF THIS, WE
HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE RISK OF 25KT+ WINDS IS THE
GREATEST AND HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST UPDATE. WE HAVE ALSO
ADDED THE PAMLICO SOUND TO THE SUITE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THEN BUILD TO 4-7 FT SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BUILD.
INCREASING MOISTURE, LIFT, AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO AN INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST. COASTAL WATERS OFF
OF OBX MAY NOT SEE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN BRIEFLY BECOMING
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE BACKING TO
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY. SEAS AROUND 4-6 FT
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS, THEN SUBSIDES TO 3-5 FT MONDAY AND AROUND 2-4
FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ
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