660
FXUS62 KMHX 040157
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
957 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 955 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE CRYSTAL COAST AND OUTER
BANKS THIS EVENING, WITH A PRE-FRONTAL WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIP
GRADUALLY MIGRATING THROUGH RALEIGH TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST, DRAPED ACROSS
EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA. CURRENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PROVIDE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP BUT
OTHERWISE BE OF NO IMPACT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT EASTWARD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT CREEPS CLOSER. MOST CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LINE OF
CONVECTION OF VARYING STRENGTH MOVING INTO ENC AFTER 2-3 AM, AND
PUSHING TO THE COAST BY 7-8 AM. THE DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION
WITHIN THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. ADEQUATE
MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT, HOWEVER DECREASING
INSTABILITY AND NOCTURNAL TIMING WILL BE WORKING AGAINST THESE
STORMS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION REFORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS ENC, AND ACT AS
A FOCUS POINT FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE LATER IN THE DAY. THE AREA
WILL REMAIN UNDER FAVORABLE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP DUE TO DECREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY, WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD, AND IF THESE INGREDIENTS CAN ALL
COME TOGETHER, A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP IN THE
FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ONE POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE IF MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER
IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, WHICH WILL CURTAIL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY, AND LEAD TO WEAKER, LESS ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE COAST TOMORROW
NIGHT, WITH A LOW END SEVERE RISK CONTINUING. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
COAST, AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND BRINGS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO ENC INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY - TUESDAY: DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES JUST OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ENSUING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS WITH SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PIVOTING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY AMONG GUIDANCE BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
AROUND A HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
POTENTIALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY: AN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN EJECTING THE UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY
BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE MOVE TO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM
LEADING BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MON/...
AS OF 740 PM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH ENC
- SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OVERNIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS
- THREAT FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES TOMORROW AS
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
MEANDERING OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. BY LATE THIS EVENING, BETWEEN 04-05Z, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE AIRSPACE FROM THE WEST,
AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, CHANCES FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE, WITH CEILINGS LIKELY
DROPPING TO AROUND 1500-2500 FT. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN/CONVECTION. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PRODUCING
GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT. LOW CEILINGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON FOR MOST AREAS TOMORROW MORNING, BEFORE RETURNING
TO PREDOMINANT VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CONTINUED RISK
OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNSET SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SATURDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING THE THREAT OF OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING PRED VFR CONDITIONS BUT COULD SEE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS, THEN
SPREAD TO THE INLAND SOUNDS AND RIVERS THIS EVENING. HAVE ADDED
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUNDS TO THE SMALL CRAFT WITH A
STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT CONTRIBUTING TO FREQUENT 25 KT GUSTS.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE S AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS, WHILE
SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT. TOMORROW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS, AND THEN BY TOMORROW NIGHT WINDS
WILL COME DOWN TO 10-20 KTS OUT THE SOUTH STILL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN INTO TUESDAY, THEN WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN BRIEFLY BECOMING
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE BACKING TO
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO
3-5 FT MONDAY AND AROUND 2-4 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ131-135-150-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/MS
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...SK/SGK
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