771
FXUS62 KMHX 041114
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
714 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, STALLING
OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN
TODAY
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
BRIEF DURATION MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED EAST
OF HWY 17, WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONGER CONVECTION MOVING INTO
ONSLOW AND DUPLIN COUNTIES. THIS AREA OF STRONGER CONVECTION
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG, DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS, AND 0-3KM
SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2 ARE ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING
WILL REACH OUR CWA AROUND 6AM, WITH MAIN COLD FRONT STILL OVER
WESTERN NC. THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
THIS MORNING, REACHING OBX LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
LINE, WITH BEST SUPPORT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF, WEAK
TORNADO ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 17 WHERE SHEAR IS THE MOST
FAVORABLE. BEHIND THIS LINE, WE COULD SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
BROKEN TO OVERCAST.
THIS AFTERNOON, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN, AND ACT AS A FOCUS POINT FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE UP. THE
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER FAVORABLE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP DUE TO
DECREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY, WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD, AND IF THESE
INGREDIENTS CAN ALL COME TOGETHER, A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE IF MORNING CONVECTION
AND CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, WHICH
WILL CURTAIL HEATING AND INSTABILITY, AND LEAD TO WEAKER, LESS
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. BY 0Z MONDAY INSTABILITY
DECREASES, AS DOES THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST TONIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP EAST OF THE
STALLED FRONT WITH INLAND AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY THANKS TO
PWATS UNDER 1".
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
AREA EARLY THIS WEEK BRINING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
ENC.
MONDAY - TUESDAY: VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN CONTINUING
TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING OFFSHORE INTO
TUESDAY WHILE MID LEVEL DRYING ENSUES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS WITH
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW TO
CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON TUESDAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND
COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT AND SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WE WILL SEE GRADUAL
WARMING EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY: AN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN EJECTING THE UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT BUT A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE MOVE TO THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW AND PRECIP SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF ENC. AS IS TYPICAL
WITH AMPLIFIED PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEMS LEADING BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MON/...
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH ENC
- SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR THIS MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS
- THREAT FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES TODAY AS CONVECTION
REDEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN
MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVER ENC THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED OVER THE REGION. PREFRONTAL
TROUGH BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING, REACHING OBX BY AROUND NOON.
COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND, STALLING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING POSSIBLY DROPPING TO
IFR IN TSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PRODUCING
GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN TO
PREDOMINANT VFR IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CONTINUED RISK OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS, STRONG WINDS, AND HAIL TOWARDS SUNSET SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM RIGHT UNDER THE STALLED
FRONT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP CONSIDERING THE SOILS
WILL BE SATURATED FROM TODAY'S RAINFALL. PUT IN 6SM BR FOR THIS
TAF ISSUANCE, WITH ROOM TO GO MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FUTURE
UPDATES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT RTES MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, BRINGING THE THREAT OF OCCASIONAL
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING PRED VFR CONDITIONS BUT COULD SEE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIP
CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE MARINE
ZONES THIS MORNING. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE S AT 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS, WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT. AS WE GET INTO
LATE MORNING, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS, AND THEN BY TONIGHT WINDS WILL COME DOWN TO
10-20 KTS OUT THE SOUTH STILL.
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH GUSTY
WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF STORMS TREKS
EASTWARD. THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL PLAIN COULD
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL TO INLAND RIVERS. TONIGHT, COASTAL
TROUGH BRINGS RAIN AND TSTORM CHANCES TO COASTAL MARINE ZONES
AND INLAND SOUNDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN INTO TUESDAY, THEN WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THEN AROUND
5-15 KT TUESDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BACKING TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT MONDAY AND AROUND 2-4 FT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ131-
135-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ
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