063
FXUS62 KMHX 042015
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
415 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, STALLING
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, LEADING TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE COLD FRONT EASES INTO EAST-
CENTRAL NC. A LOW END SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH AMPLE WIND
SHEAR AND MOISTURE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LIMITED
CLEARING AND AS A RESULT HEATING, WILL KEEP INSTABILITY MEAGER
AND BELOW 1000 J/KG, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
THREAT.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AND THEN STORMS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, THE
NEWLY SATURATED SOILS AND CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMATION BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS ENC, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TOMORROW
WITH A SLOWLY MOVING CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING WILL
TRANSITION INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN PRESENT IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KTS, AND WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING FURTHER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN THE RANGE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO PROHIBIT A WIDER SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS. NEVERTHELESS, STORMS THAT OVERCOME THIS OBSTACLE WILL
CARRY A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
AREA EARLY THIS WEEK BRINING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
ENC.
MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY: VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
CONTINUING TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING
OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY WHILE MID LEVEL DRYING ENSUES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS WITH SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PIVOTING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
ON TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY: AN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN EJECTING THE UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT BUT A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE MOVE TO THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW AND PRECIP SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF ENC. AS IS TYPICAL
WITH AMPLIFIED PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEMS LEADING BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- THREAT FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS
- PATCHY MVFR LEVEL FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING INLAND
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE AS CONVECTION IS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
ENC THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND THEN SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT,
SATURATED GROUNDS AND CALM WINDS INLAND WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH VISIBILITIES
DROPPING TO 3-5 MILES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS FOG BURNS OFF. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM
SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT RTES MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST, BRINGING THE THREAT OF OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING PRED VFR CONDITIONS BUT COULD SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIP CHANCES RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
BEHIND A POTENT PREFRONTAL TROUGH WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT THE
REST OF THE DAY, BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH AT 10-20
KTS. SEAS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN AROUND 6 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING, SO SCAS REMAIN UNCHANGED AND EXPIRE JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
WINDS TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10-20 KTS, BUT
WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO 15-25 KTS. SOME BRIEF SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP WITH PEAK HEATING AS THE THERMAL
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, BUT IT SHOULD BE BRIEF ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. WAVES WILL BE 3-5 FT OVERNIGHT, AND THEN
SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE
COAST EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT AT 10-20 KTS, AND THEN EXPECT WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/SGK
MARINE...SK/SGK
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