265
FXUS62 KMHX 050757
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
357 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA TODAY, LEADING TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION BY
LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DENSE FOG POSSIBLE UNTIL 9AM THIS MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST
- GENERAL TSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR OBX THIS MORNING
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THIS MORNING...
FOGGY START TO THE MORNING WITH SOME LOW STRATUS MIXED IN AS
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
HAVE ALLOWED DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE DENSE FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE TODAY, AND DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE NEXT
2-5 HOURS. FOG WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AFTER WE START WARMING
UP, NOT EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND 9AM.
AFTERNOON/EVENING...
STALLED FRONT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE THE FORCING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1-1.25", AND COLD AIR
ALOFT BRINGS STEEP MID AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS RESULTS
IN SBCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG MAXIMIZED FOR AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ONCE SFC HEATING ERODES THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS WOULD SUPPORT
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION AS THE DOMINANT STORM MODE. WITH THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES, THERE IS A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF
HWY 17. SPC HAS US IN A DAY 1 MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. SOMETHING WORTH NOTING IS MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE IS
MORE EXCITED FOR SEVERE PROBS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, LIKELY DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW INCREASING INSTABILITY. WHILE THERE IS SOLID
CONSENSUS WITH CAMS IN REGARDS TO THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING, IF THE STALLED FRONT SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN
ANTICIPATED, THE STORMS AND SEVERE THREAT WOULD SHIFT TO OUR
WEST CLOSER TO I-95. IN ADDITION, DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE IT A
BIT HARDER FOR UPDRAFTS TO PUNCH THROUGH, PRECLUDING MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 60-70% FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
-FOG CHANCES TONIGHT INLAND
UPPER LOW LINGERS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT, AND THE STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS OVER ENC. WHILE DECREASING INSTABILITY TONIGHT WILL
RAPIDLY DECREASE POPS INLAND AFTER SUNSET, OBX COULD CONTINUE
TO SEE SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. INLAND, ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BRING FOG CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
AREA EARLY THIS WEEK BRINING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
ENC.
MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY: VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
CONTINUING TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING
OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY WHILE MID LEVEL DRYING ENSUES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS WITH SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PIVOTING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
ON TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY: AN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN EJECTING THE UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT BUT A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE MOVE TO THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW AND PRECIP SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF ENC. AS IS TYPICAL
WITH AMPLIFIED PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEMS LEADING BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...SATURATED GROUNDS AND CALM WINDS INLAND
HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING, WITH
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR-LIFR LEVELS FOR MOST
INLAND TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
AS THE FOG/LOW STRATUS BURN OFF. TODAY, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES ARE WEST OF HWY 17
(PGV/ISO), SO HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUP FOR THESE TERMINALS, FURTHER
EAST, CHANCES ARE LESS, SO STUCK WITH VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ IN
THIS TAF UPDATE. TSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE AS THE SUN SETS,
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.
THIS BRINGS ANOTHER NIGHT OF POTENTIAL FOG INLAND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT RTES MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, BRINGING THE THREAT OF OCCASIONAL
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING PRED VFR CONDITIONS BUT COULD SEE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIP
CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING
- THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TONIGHT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE OF OBX AND INTO THE EASTERN
EXTEND OF THE PAMLICO SOUND THIS MORNING AS MULTIPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH TSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASING QUITE A BIT OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
MARINE ZONES CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BEST CHANCES ARE INLAND.
TONIGHT, MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES INCREASE TSTORM CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN FOR AREAS OFFSHORE OF OBX.
WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10-20 KTS, BUT
WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO 15-25 KTS. SOME BRIEF SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR NORTHERN SOUNDS WITH PEAK
HEATING AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, BUT IT SHOULD BE
BRIEF ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE. WAVES CURRENTLY 3-5
FT SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE
COAST EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT AT 10-20 KTS, AND THEN EXPECT WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ
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