878
FXUS62 KMHX 051114
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
714 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA TODAY, LEADING TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION BY
LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 7 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DENSE FOG POSSIBLE UNTIL 9AM THIS MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST
- GENERAL TSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR OBX THIS MORNING
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THIS MORNING...
FOGGY START TO THE MORNING WITH SOME LOW STRATUS MIXED IN AS
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
HAVE ALLOWED DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOG HAS BECOME DENSE IN
SPOTS FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE TODAY, WITH DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OUT FOR A PORTION OF THE CWA. FOG WILL QUICKLY TAPER
OFF AFTER WE START WARMING UP, NOT EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND 9AM.
AFTERNOON/EVENING...
STALLED FRONT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE THE FORCING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1-1.25", AND COLD AIR
ALOFT BRINGS STEEP MID AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS RESULTS
IN SBCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG MAXIMIZED FOR AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ONCE SFC HEATING ERODES THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS WOULD SUPPORT
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION AS THE DOMINANT STORM MODE. WITH THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES, THERE IS A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF
HWY 17. SPC HAS US IN A DAY 1 MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. SOMETHING WORTH NOTING IS MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE IS
MORE EXCITED FOR SEVERE PROBS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, LIKELY DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW INCREASING INSTABILITY. WHILE THERE IS SOLID
CONSENSUS WITH CAMS IN REGARDS TO THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING, IF THE STALLED FRONT SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN
ANTICIPATED, THE STORMS AND SEVERE THREAT WOULD SHIFT TO OUR
WEST CLOSER TO I-95. IN ADDITION, DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE IT A
BIT HARDER FOR UPDRAFTS TO PUNCH THROUGH, PRECLUDING MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 60-70% FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
-FOG CHANCES TONIGHT INLAND
UPPER LOW LINGERS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT, AND THE STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS OVER ENC. WHILE DECREASING INSTABILITY TONIGHT WILL
RAPIDLY DECREASE POPS INLAND AFTER SUNSET, OBX COULD CONTINUE
TO SEE SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. INLAND, ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BRING FOG CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN EJECTING THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO
THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS
INLAND AREAS DRY WITH SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INNER BANKS WHERE
SEA BREEZE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AND
HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTWARD FROM NBM GUIDANCE.
DAMPENING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT
BUT A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
THE REGION AS WE MOVE TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
STATES NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. 05/00Z GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH STRONGER WITH A CUT OFF LOW BRIEFLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC STATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
A WEAKER UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
AMPLIFIED PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE IS NOT IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEMS
LEADING BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...SATURATED GROUNDS AND CALM WINDS INLAND
HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING, WITH
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT IFR-LIFR LEVELS FOR MOST INLAND
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AS THE
FOG/LOW STRATUS BURN OFF. TODAY, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES ARE WEST OF HWY 17 (PGV/ISO), SO
HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUP FOR THESE TERMINALS, FURTHER EAST,
CHANCES ARE LESS, SO STUCK WITH VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ IN THIS TAF
UPDATE. TSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE AS THE SUN SETS,
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.
THIS BRINGS ANOTHER NIGHT OF POTENTIAL FOG INLAND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING PRED VFR CONDITIONS BUT
COULD SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG BRINGING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 710 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WIND AND ELEVATED SEAS FOR NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
- WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING
- THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TONIGHT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE OF OBX AND INTO THE EASTERN
EXTEND OF THE PAMLICO SOUND THIS MORNING AS MULTIPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. A
GENERAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SEEMS TO HAVE DEVELOPED THANKS TO
THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFFSHORE. THIS HAS TIGHTENED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN MARINE ZONES, AND WE ARE
OBSERVING GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS FOR PAMLICO, CROATAN AND ROANOKE
SOUNDS, IN ADDITION TO COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.
SEAS HAVE ALSO INCREASED, UP TO 7 FT ACCORDING TO BUOY OBS.
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CAPTURING THESE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS, BUT AS CONVECTION SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE BY
LATE MORNING, IT IS LIKELY THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS A
RESULT. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9:30AM
FOR IMPACTED WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE REASSESSED PRIOR TO THE
EXPIRATION OF THE MWS TO DETERMINE IF IT SHOULD BE REISSUED.
WHILE A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
MARINE ZONES CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BEST CHANCES ARE INLAND.
TONIGHT, MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES INCREASE TSTORM CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN FOR AREAS OFFSHORE OF OBX.
WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10-20 KTS, BUT
WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO 15-25 KTS. SOME BRIEF SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR NORTHERN SOUNDS WITH PEAK
HEATING AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, BUT IT SHOULD BE
BRIEF ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE. WAVES CURRENTLY 3-5
FT SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 445 AM MONDAY...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-15 KT, THEN EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT
DEVELOPING FRIDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
THEN BUILD TO 4-6 FT FRIDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ090>092-
193-194-198.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-204-
205.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ
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