229
FXUS62 KMHX 051900
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION BY LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM MON...WANING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING WILL TRANSLATE
TO A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BY THIS EVENING,
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE OBX
ZONES, WHILE INTERIOR AREAS SEE A DRYING AND COOLING TREND AS
COOL FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FROM THE WEST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
PATCHY FOG AWAY FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE, AS
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY COULD LEAD TO A ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR FOG. WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS TO HONE IN ON FOG
DEVELOPEMENT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM MON...MUCH DRIER AIR FOR YOUR TUE AS TD'S WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST, 60S COAST. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES, WITH ONLY A VERY ISO CHC (20%) FOR THE NERN MAINLAND
ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. PLEASANT RH'S AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIR, AND HIGH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO AROUND 80 FOR MOST INTERIOR
ZONES AND 70S FOR THE COAST. COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD FOR TUE
NIGHT AS THE DRY AIRMASS AND MO CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO LOWS WELL
DOWN INTO THE 50S (60S BEACHES).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...DAMPENING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT BUT A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE MOVE TO THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD CONTINUE TO
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. 05/00Z GUIDANCE NOW HAS
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH STRONGER WITH A CUT OFF LOW BRIEFLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC STATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WEAKER UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS IS
TYPICAL WITH AMPLIFIED PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE IS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEMS LEADING BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TEMPS LOOK TO BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...TSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE AS THE SUN
SETS, BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT. THIS BRINGS ANOTHER NIGHT OF POTENTIAL FOG INLAND
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN,
AND HAVE LEFT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAF'S ATTM. LATER SHIFTS
WILL REEVALUATE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING PRED VFR CONDITIONS BUT COULD SEE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...SRLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT CONT THROUGH TONIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS, WITH PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM.
MOSTLY DRY FOR TUE, WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS OF 5-15 KT AND SEAS OF
2-4 FT.
LONG TERM /WED THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM MONDAY...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE
COAST EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-15 KT, THEN
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT DEVELOPING FRIDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN BUILD TO 4-6 FT FRIDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
204-205.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK/ZC
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...SK/TL
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