299
FXUS62 KMHX 060022
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
822 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION BY LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF ENC
AT THIS TIME, BUT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. IF THIS TREND
HOLDS, THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED BY 9 PM. OF NOTE, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED FROM THE ATLANTIC NORTH THROUGH THE OBX. THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WANING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING WILL
TRANSLATE TO A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BY THIS
EVENING, SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE RELEGATED TO
THE OBX ZONES, WHILE INTERIOR AREAS SEE A DRYING AND COOLING
TREND AS COOL FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FROM THE WEST. ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO PATCHY FOG AWAY FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT TOWARDS
SUNRISE, AS AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY COULD LEAD TO A
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR FOG. WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS TO HONE IN
ON FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM MON...MUCH DRIER AIR FOR YOUR TUE AS TD'S WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST, 60S COAST. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES, WITH ONLY A VERY ISO CHC (20%) FOR THE NERN MAINLAND
ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. PLEASANT RH'S AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIR, AND HIGH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO AROUND 80 FOR MOST INTERIOR
ZONES AND 70S FOR THE COAST. COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD FOR TUE
NIGHT AS THE DRY AIRMASS AND MO CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO LOWS WELL
DOWN INTO THE 50S (60S BEACHES).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...DAMPENING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT BUT A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE MOVE TO THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD CONTINUE TO
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. 05/00Z GUIDANCE NOW HAS
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH STRONGER WITH A CUT OFF LOW BRIEFLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC STATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WEAKER UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS IS
TYPICAL WITH AMPLIFIED PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE IS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEMS LEADING BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TEMPS LOOK TO BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- TSRA RISK GRADUALLY DECREASES THIS EVENING
- BR/FG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
- LOWER TSRA RISK TUESDAY
A BROKEN BAND OF TSRA CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTH THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF ENC THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF KPGV. WHERE TSRA OCCUR, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF IFR
VIS, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL (PEA TO HALF-INCH SIZE). THE
RISK OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR MOST OF ENC OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
RECENT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED. THIS MAY LAST
SEVERAL HOURS, PRIMARILY IMPACTING AREAS FROM KHSE TO KFFA. AS
CLOUDS CLEAR AND AS WINDS DECREASE, THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR MIST/SHALLOW FOG (BR/MIFG) TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY. WITH THIS TAF UPDATE, I'VE
ADDED IN A MENTION OF 5SM BR FOR MOST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POTENTIAL. LOWER VIS IS CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE, AND WE'LL
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON TUESDAY, AFTERNOON
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION MAY ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA TO
DEVELOP, BUT THE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING PRED VFR CONDITIONS BUT COULD SEE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...SRLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT CONT THROUGH TONIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS, WITH PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM.
MOSTLY DRY FOR TUE, WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS OF 5-15 KT AND SEAS OF
2-4 FT.
LONG TERM /WED THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM MONDAY...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE
COAST EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-15 KT, THEN
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT DEVELOPING FRIDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN BUILD TO 4-6 FT FRIDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK/ZC
AVIATION...RM/SK
MARINE...SK/TL
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