481
FXUS62 KMHX 060822
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
422 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION BY LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PATCHY FOG ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 17 EARLY THIS MORNING
-WARM, DRY DAY FOR MOST. 10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTORMS
ALONG SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OVER THE REGION THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND IT. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING THANKS TO RECENT RAINFALL, LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WE COULD SEE FOG START
TO BREAK UP, BUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT UNTIL THE INVERSION BURNS OFF
AFTER SUNRISE. DRY AIR ALOFT FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS KEEPING
KEEP THE FOG SHALLOWER IN NATURE, AND FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF BY 9AM. LOWS THIS MORNING IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND, MID
60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE COAST.
TODAY, WE WARM UP AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN. SEA
BREEZE ADVANCES INLAND, AND MODELS HAVE BEEN ON A DRIER TREND
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE AND
DRIER AIR WILL HAVE MOVED IN BY THE TIME THE SEA BREEZE STARTS
UP. STILL, KEPT THE POP FORECAST UNCHANGED (15-20%) FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS WE
ARE TOTALLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S INLAND, NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD FOR TUE NIGHT
AS THE DRY AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO LOWS WELL
DOWN INTO THE 50S (60S BEACHES).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...DAMPENING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT BUT A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE MOVE TO THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD CONTINUE TO
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. 05/00Z GUIDANCE NOW HAS
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH STRONGER WITH A CUT OFF LOW BRIEFLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC STATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WEAKER UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS IS
TYPICAL WITH AMPLIFIED PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE IS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEMS LEADING BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TEMPS LOOK TO BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BR/FG THIS MORNING
- 10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
- FOG CHANCES AGAIN TONIGHT
SHALLOW FOG ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING BURNS OFF BY
9AM. RAIN CHANCES HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARDS FOR TODAY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AS COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS MORNING USHERS IN DRIER AIR.
HAVE A 10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE,
BUT IT IS UNLIKELY ENOUGH WHERE I HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE
TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY SHOULD
BE AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. TONIGHT, THERE IS ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
POSSIBLE AS WE DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING PRED VFR CONDITIONS BUT COULD SEE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...DRY FOR MOST TODAY, WITH LIGHT S/SWRLY
WINDS OF 5-15 KT AND SEAS OF 2-5 FT. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS
20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR WATERS NEAR NOBX AS A THERMAL GRADIENT
SETS UP. TONIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST VEER TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY, WHILE REMAINING BELOW 15 KTS. THANKS TO THE LIGHTER
WINDS, WAVES ALSO DECREASE, BECOMING 1-3 FT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WED THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM MONDAY...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE
COAST EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-15 KT, THEN
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT DEVELOPING FRIDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN BUILD TO 4-6 FT FRIDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ
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