236
FXUS62 KMHX 060932
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
532 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION BY LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PATCHY FOG ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 17 EARLY THIS MORNING
-WARM, DRY DAY FOR MOST. 10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTORMS
ALONG SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OVER THE REGION THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND IT. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING THANKS TO RECENT RAINFALL, LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WE COULD SEE FOG START
TO BREAK UP, BUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT UNTIL THE INVERSION BURNS OFF
AFTER SUNRISE. DRY AIR ALOFT FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS KEEPING
KEEP THE FOG SHALLOWER IN NATURE, AND FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF BY 9AM. LOWS THIS MORNING IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND, MID
60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE COAST.
TODAY, WE WARM UP AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN. SEA
BREEZE ADVANCES INLAND, AND MODELS HAVE BEEN ON A DRIER TREND
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE AND
DRIER AIR WILL HAVE MOVED IN BY THE TIME THE SEA BREEZE STARTS
UP. STILL, KEPT THE POP FORECAST UNCHANGED (15-20%) FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS WE
ARE TOTALLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S INLAND, NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD FOR TUE NIGHT
AS THE DRY AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO LOWS WELL
DOWN INTO THE 50S (60S BEACHES).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...DAMPENING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT BUT A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE MOVE TO THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD THE AREA BUT 06/00Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DRIER WITH
PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. AS IS TYPICAL WITH AMPLIFIED
PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING LEADING BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BR/FG THIS MORNING
- 10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
- FOG CHANCES AGAIN TONIGHT
SHALLOW FOG ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING BURNS OFF BY
9AM. RAIN CHANCES HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARDS FOR TODAY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AS COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS MORNING USHERS IN DRIER AIR.
HAVE A 10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE,
BUT IT IS UNLIKELY ENOUGH WHERE I HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE
TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY SHOULD
BE AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. TONIGHT, THERE IS ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
POSSIBLE AS WE DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PRED
VFR CONDITIONS BUT COULD SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE TRENDING
DRIER FOR SATURDAY BUT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES
MAINLY CLOUDY BUT IF PRECIP DOES LIFT SUFFICIENTLY NORTH, COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...DRY FOR MOST TODAY, WITH LIGHT S/SWRLY
WINDS OF 5-15 KT AND SEAS OF 2-5 FT. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS
20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR WATERS NEAR NOBX AS A THERMAL GRADIENT
SETS UP. TONIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST VEER TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY, WHILE REMAINING BELOW 15 KTS. THANKS TO THE LIGHTER
WINDS, WAVES ALSO DECREASE, BECOMING 1-3 FT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING NORTHERNLY
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT VEERING TO NE SATURDAY. SEAS AROUND 2-3
FT WEDNESDAY BUILDS TO 2-4 FT THURSDAY, THEN TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS SEE UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ON
SATURDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ
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