332  
FXUS62 KMHX 061341  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
941 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,  
WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE  
REGION BY LATE WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /TODAY/  
 
AS OF 940 AM TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
-WARM, DRY DAY FOR MOST. 10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTORMS  
ALONG SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON  
 
COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OVER THE REGION THE PAST COUPLE  
DAYS FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE LATER MORNING WITH DRIER AIR  
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. TODAY, WE WARM UP AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS  
BUILDING IN. SEA BREEZE ADVANCES INLAND, AND MODELS HAVE BEEN ON  
A DRIER TREND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE  
PUSHED OFFSHORE AND DRIER AIR WILL HAVE MOVED IN BY THE TIME THE  
SEA BREEZE STARTS UP. STILL, KEPT THE POP FORECAST UNCHANGED  
(15-20%) FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE MOST  
LIKELY SCENARIO IS WE ARE TOTALLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS  
TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND, NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD FOR TUE NIGHT  
AS THE DRY AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO LOWS WELL DOWN  
INTO THE 50S (60S BEACHES).  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...DAMPENING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE  
AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT BUT A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND  
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS  
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE MOVE TO THE LATTER HALF  
OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN  
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED  
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH  
TOWARD THE AREA BUT 06/00Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DRIER WITH  
PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH  
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING BETTER  
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. AS IS TYPICAL WITH AMPLIFIED  
PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE  
EVOLUTION AND TIMING LEADING BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TEMPS  
LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FEW  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 7 AM TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- BR/FG ENDING BY 9AM THIS MORNING  
- 10-15% CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON  
- FOG CHANCES AGAIN TONIGHT  
 
SHALLOW FOG ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING BURNS OFF BY  
9AM. RAIN CHANCES HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARDS FOR TODAY ALONG THE SEA  
BREEZE AS COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS MORNING USHERS IN DRIER AIR.  
HAVE A 10-15% CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE,  
BUT IT IS UNLIKELY ENOUGH WHERE I HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE  
TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY SHOULD  
BE AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. TONIGHT, THERE IS ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG  
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS  
WE DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 5 AM TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PRED  
VFR CONDITIONS BUT COULD SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG  
BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT  
WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH  
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE TRENDING  
DRIER FOR SATURDAY BUT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES  
MAINLY CLOUDY BUT IF PRECIP DOES LIFT SUFFICIENTLY NORTH, COULD  
SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 940 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW SW-NW WINDS 5-10 KT WITH  
SEAS 2-5 FT, HIGHEST NORTH OF HATTERAS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATER TODAY, WITH SSW WINDS 5-15 KT  
RETURNING. TONIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST VEER TO BECOME  
MORE WESTERLY, WHILE REMAINING BELOW 15 KTS. THANKS TO THE  
LIGHTER WINDS, WAVES ALSO DECREASE, BECOMING 1-3 FT TONIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 5 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR  
LESS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING NORTHERNLY  
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT VEERING TO NE SATURDAY. SEAS AROUND 2-3  
FT WEDNESDAY BUILDS TO 2-4 FT THURSDAY, THEN TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY  
AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS SEE UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ON  
SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...CQD/RJ  
SHORT TERM...RJ  
LONG TERM...SK  
AVIATION...SK/RJ  
MARINE...CQD/SK/RJ  
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