338
FXUS62 KMHX 061840
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND/OR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION BY
LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM TUE...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT
LINGERING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO
THE NE US. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE NEAR THE FRONT AND ALONG THE SEABREEZE,
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY AND LIGHT
WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S
INLAND AND LOW/MID 60S FOR THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 240 PM TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA WITH DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ALOFT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS EASTERN NC. LACK OF SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP
THE AREA MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE SHOWER. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS SUPPORT HIGHS 80-85 DEG.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE MOVE TO THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD THE AREA BUT 06/00Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DRIER WITH
PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. AS IS TYPICAL WITH AMPLIFIED
PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE EVOLUTION
AND TIMING LEADING BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TEMPS LOOK TO BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING, WITH BEST
CHANCES AT OAJ. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE TRENDING
DRIER FOR SATURDAY BUT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES
MAINLY CLOUDY BUT IF PRECIP DOES LIFT SUFFICIENTLY NORTH, COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS 5-15 KT AND
SEAS 2-4 FT. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PRED SSW WINDS 5-15 KT RETURNING BY THIS
EVENING. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. LIGHT WNW WINDS TO START WED, ONCE AGAIN BECOMING
MORE SSW 10 KT OR LESS LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS 2-4 FT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT AND WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT VEERING TO NE SATURDAY. SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT
WEDNESDAY BUILDS TO 2-4 FT THURSDAY, THEN TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. CLOUDS SEE UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ON
SATURDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CQD/SK
MARINE...CQD/SK
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