914
FXUS62 KMHX 070652
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
252 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TODAY, WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND/OR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION BY
LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 2 AM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S INLAND AND LOW/MID 60S FOR THE BEACHES.
COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN NEAR US THE PAST COUPLE DAYS FINALLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
BUILDING IN. DRY THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY, BRINGING INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH
TODAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BEHIND IT. HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S INLAND, UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN. DRIER AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO OCCUR AS DROPLETS STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE GROUND. THIS DRY LAYER PREVENTS ME FROM GOING HIGHER THAN
15% FOR POPS TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
(UNDER 0.05"), BUT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MODERATED.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW 60S INLAND, MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE MOVE TO THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD THE AREA BUT 06/00Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DRIER WITH
PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. AS IS TYPICAL WITH AMPLIFIED
PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE EVOLUTION
AND TIMING LEADING BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TEMPS LOOK TO BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...PATCHY, SHALLOW FOG CHANCES INCREASE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17 WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE,
INCLUDING OAJ AND EWN. SHALLOW FOG CLEARS OUT BY 9AM, LEADING TO
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY 5-10KT
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR COASTAL SITES.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS, MAYBE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN, MOVE IN TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME
GIVEN DRIER NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE TRENDING
DRIER FOR SATURDAY BUT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES
MAINLY CLOUDY BUT IF PRECIP DOES LIFT SUFFICIENTLY NORTH, COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AS COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS MORNING, BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WAVES 2-3 FT THIS
MORNING REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT VEERING TO NE SATURDAY. SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT
WEDNESDAY BUILDS TO 2-4 FT THURSDAY, THEN TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. CLOUDS SEE UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ON
SATURDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ
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