354
FXUS62 KMHX 071330
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TODAY, WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND/OR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION BY
LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 930 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR AM UPDATE. DRY THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY, BRINGING
INCREASINGLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. SEA
BREEZE MOVES THROUGH TODAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BEHIND
IT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND, UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN. DRIER AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO OCCUR AS DROPLETS STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE GROUND. THIS DRY LAYER PREVENTS ME FROM GOING HIGHER THAN
15% FOR POPS TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
(UNDER 0.05"), BUT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MODERATED.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW 60S INLAND, MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 4 AM WEDNESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM TOUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WILL PARTIALLY ABSORB A CUT OFF LOW
SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
LATE THURSDAY AND LIFT NORTH AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY EVENING. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHEST PROBS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW DEEPENS ACROSS
SOUTHERN STATES WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH TOWARD
THE AREA. 07/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS MIXED WHERE THERE WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING PRECIP ACROSS ENC OR WHETHER IT WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT DO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.
AS IS TYPICAL WITH AMPLIFIED PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE
STRUGGLES WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING CONTINUING TO BRING BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST DETAILS.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY 5-10KT BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR COASTAL SITES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS, MAYBE
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN, MOVE IN TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME GIVEN DRIER NEAR SURFACE
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY. HOWEVER, IF PRECIP DOES
LIFT SUFFICIENTLY NORTH, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BRINGING SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM WED...LATEST OBS SHOW N-NW WINDS 5-10 KT WITH SEAS
2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AS COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING, BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WAVES 2-3 FT THIS MORNING
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERNLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
THURSDAY INCREASES TO 10-15 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH N TO
NELY WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
NE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT
THURSDAY BUILD TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND COULD SEE UP
TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...CQD/SK/RJ
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