275
FXUS62 KMHX 080213
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1013 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY, WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND, WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 10 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED DURING THE EVENING UPDATE. POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING, AND THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING RAIN, BUT QPF WILL BE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 230 PM WED...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE US, WHILE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN. DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING, WITH
PRECIP LIKELY STRUGGLING TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL KEEP SC POPS
LATE, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANY QPF AMTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, LIKELY ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM 60-65 DEG
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRAD SLIDE OFF THE COAST,
WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE
THURSDAY GRAD LIFTING NORTH AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH
A TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. THINK MOST
OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BEST
RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST EARLY THEN TRANSITIONING
INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SC POPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ALONG
THE BEACHES AND LOW/MID 80S INLAND.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 4 AM WEDNESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM TOUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WILL PARTIALLY ABSORB A CUT OFF LOW
SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
LATE THURSDAY AND LIFT NORTH AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY EVENING. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHEST PROBS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW DEEPENS ACROSS
SOUTHERN STATES WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH TOWARD
THE AREA. 07/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS MIXED WHERE THERE WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING PRECIP ACROSS ENC OR WHETHER IT WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT DO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.
AS IS TYPICAL WITH AMPLIFIED PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE
STRUGGLES WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING CONTINUING TO BRING BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST DETAILS.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7:20 PM WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT, PERSISTING AROUND 5-7 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY. HOWEVER, IF PRECIP DOES
LIFT SUFFICIENTLY NORTH, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BRINGING SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...LATEST OBS SHOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND SEAS 2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES MORE SW-SE THIS
EVENING 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT AND S-SE 5-10 KT THU.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH N TO NELY WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND COULD SEE UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/OJC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...OJC/SK
MARINE...CQD/SK
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