770
FXUS62 KMHX 081738
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
138 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TODAY, WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND, WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/... AS OF 130 PM THU
ONCE AGAIN
LEFT THE FORECAST ALONE AS EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE TRACKING WELL
ON THIS UPDATE.
PREV DISC...AS OF 4 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRAD SLIDE OFF
THE COAST, WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
LATE TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH AND OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST WITH
A TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS LATE. A
FEW SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF A 80-100K FT DECK CONT TO DOT ENC
EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH NO MEASURABLE EXPECTED, SO FCST
REMAINS POP-FREE. THROUGH TODAY, CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER ON
THE SEABREEZE, BUT MOST OF THE REGION REMAIN DRY WITH MO CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ALONG THE
BEACHES AND LOW/MID 80S INLAND.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 4 AM THU...TRICKY FCST TONIGHT, AS MUCH WILL HINGE ON
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TO THE WEST TODAY. SOME OF THE CAM'S PLUS
THE EURO INDICATING AN MCS, OR WEAKENING MCS, MOVING THROUGH ENC
THIS EVENING. PROBS ARE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT LIKELY
SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT WILL RAISE POPS TO 40-50% AS CONFIDENCE IS
A BIT HIGHER OF THIS OCCURRING THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE. ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDER, THOUGH NO SEVERE IS
EXPECTED AS DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIN WILL BE IN PLACE. BEST
THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL BE PRIOR TO 06-07Z, AND THEN HAVE POPS
DECREASING THEREAFTER, ALONG WITH THREAT FOR THUNDER. LOWS WILL
BE VERY WARM, IN THE 60S AREA- WIDE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 405 AM THURSDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM TOUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WILL PARTIALLY ABSORB A CUT OFF LOW
SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST FRI MORNING WITH A TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE SURFACE FRONT ITSELF
PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT. PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG STORMS WITH FORECAST EFFECTIVE
SHEAR EXCEEDING 40 KT AND CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG, ALTHOUGH WHETHER
THIS WILL BE REALIZED WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON EVOLUTION OF
OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW DEEPENS ACROSS
SOUTHERN STATES WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH TOWARD
THE AREA. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER AS COLD FRONT
MANAGES TO DROP WELL TO OUR SOUTH, KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE
SHUNTED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF US70, CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
BRING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GOOD
MOISTURE FEED AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
AMPLIFIED PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING CONTINUING TO BRING BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST DETAILS, BUT STRONGER SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER AIR DEPARTS LATE
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 140 PM THU...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN
PREVALENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WHILE CEILINGS AND VIS
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR INTO FRI MORNING. MAY SEE AN ISO SHOWER
ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT FOR NOW THE MAIN SHOW IN
THE NEAR TERM WILL BE TONIGHT WHEN A DECAYING AREA OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS BEGIN TO APPROACH THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM THE WEST AND
THEN TRACK ESE'WARDS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME INCREASED
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER JUST ENOUGH FOR ME
TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR SHRA OR TSTM
AT ALL TERMINALS AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISO
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY IMPACT THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z-06Z
FRI, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 264. COULD SEE CONTINUED
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING ON FRI MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT COMING FROM THE WSW TO SW AT 10 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES INTO FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY. HOWEVER, IF PRECIP DOES LIFT SUFFICIENTLY
NORTH, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BRINGING SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE TODAY AS LOCAL SEA/SOUND BREEZES
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GENERAL WINDS SWRLY TONIGHT BUT
REMAINING LIGHT, GENERALLY 5-15 KT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS AREA
WATERS TOMORROW EVENING WITH N TO NELY WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND COULD SEE UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...TL/MS
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