461
FXUS62 KMHX 082016
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
416 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH THIS WEEKEND, WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 415 PM THU...A MIX OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CURRENTLY ENCOMPASS MUCH OF ENC THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS HAVE
GOTTEN INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE COAST WHILE A WEAK SEABREEZE
IS ALSO NOTED MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND INCOMING
SEABREEZE, THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS ACTIVITY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS GENERALLY
AROUND 100-500 J/KG OF ML CAPE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THOUGH
WITH A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING WE DONT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT WILL NOTE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO ISN'T OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY PRIOR TO SUNDOWN.
AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
GENERAL EXPECTATION GIVEN THE LATEST DATA IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS OUT WEST AND CONTINUE E'WARDS REACHING THE
COASTAL PLAIN AFTER ABOUT THE 8-10 PM TIMEFRAME. DID KEEP POP'S AT
HIGH END CHANCE TONIGHT AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
MUCH THE MCS OUT WEST HOLDS TOGETHER TONIGHT BUT DO THINK ITS OUR
BEST CHANCE AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BEFORE 2AM. WHILE THERE
IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDER AND A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO, CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP AS DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIN WILL BE IN PLACE. BEST
THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL BE PRIOR TO 2-3 AM, AND THEN HAVE POPS
DECREASING THEREAFTER, ALONG WITH THREAT FOR THUNDER. LOWS WILL
BE VERY WARM, IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
AS OF 415 PM THU...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND WILL PARTIALLY ABSORB A CUT OFF LOW
SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRI MORNING WITH A TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA FRI EVENING. DO EXPECT SOME DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR
AND WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
BUILD FRI AFTERNOON WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE FORECAST
ACROSS ENC. COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO
35-45 KTS AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS, THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
IN NATURE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE HIGHS GET
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 405 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER
AS COLD FRONT MANAGES TO DROP WELL TO OUR SOUTH, KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE SHUNTED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF US70, CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
BRING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GOOD
MOISTURE FEED AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
AMPLIFIED PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING CONTINUING TO BRING BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST DETAILS, BUT STRONGER SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER AIR DEPARTS LATE
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 140 PM THU...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN
PREVALENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WHILE CEILINGS AND VIS
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR INTO FRI MORNING. MAY SEE AN ISO SHOWER
ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT FOR NOW THE MAIN SHOW IN
THE NEAR TERM WILL BE TONIGHT WHEN A DECAYING AREA OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS BEGIN TO APPROACH THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM THE WEST AND
THEN TRACK ESE'WARDS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME INCREASED
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER JUST ENOUGH FOR ME
TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR SHRA OR TSTM
AT ALL TERMINALS AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISO
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY IMPACT THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z-06Z
FRI, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 264. COULD SEE CONTINUED
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING ON FRI MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT COMING FROM THE WSW TO SW AT 10 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES INTO FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY. HOWEVER, IF PRECIP DOES LIFT SUFFICIENTLY
NORTH, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BRINGING SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THU...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS S-SW
WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ARE ONGOING ACROSS OUR AREA
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. DONT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT DO EXPECT INCREASING SW'RLY FLOW FRI WITH SW'RLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING CLOSER TO 3-5 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL NOTE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE AT
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR WATERS AS WELL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY ENHANCED
WINDS AND SEAS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS AREA
WATERS TOMORROW EVENING WITH N TO NELY WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND COULD SEE UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...MS/RCF
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