422
FXUS62 KMHX 090211
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH THIS WEEKEND, WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH A NOTABLE GUST FRONT SURGING
AHEAD OF IT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY
PROGRESS INTO OUR WESTERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO, BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 415 PM THU...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. GENERAL EXPECTATION GIVEN THE
LATEST DATA IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO AN MCS OUT WEST
AND CONTINUE E'WARDS REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER ABOUT THE
8-10 PM TIMEFRAME. DID KEEP POP'S AT HIGH END CHANCE TONIGHT AS
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH THE MCS OUT WEST
HOLDS TOGETHER TONIGHT BUT DO THINK ITS OUR BEST CHANCE AT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY BEFORE 2AM. WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDER AND A STRONGER STORM
OR TWO, CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AS
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIN WILL BE IN PLACE. BEST THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE PRIOR TO 2-3 AM, AND THEN HAVE POPS DECREASING
THEREAFTER, ALONG WITH THREAT FOR THUNDER. LOWS WILL BE VERY
WARM, IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
AS OF 415 PM THU...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND WILL PARTIALLY ABSORB A CUT OFF LOW
SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRI MORNING WITH A TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA FRI EVENING. DO EXPECT SOME DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR
AND WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
BUILD FRI AFTERNOON WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE FORECAST
ACROSS ENC. COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO
35-45 KTS AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS, THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
IN NATURE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE HIGHS GET
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 405 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER
AS COLD FRONT MANAGES TO DROP WELL TO OUR SOUTH, KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE SHUNTED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF US70, CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
BRING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GOOD
MOISTURE FEED AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
AMPLIFIED PATTERNS AND CUT OFF LOWS, GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING CONTINUING TO BRING BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST DETAILS, BUT STRONGER SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER AIR DEPARTS LATE
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM THURSDAY...ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT
VFR, BUT CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH EWN POSSIBLY
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PGV AND ISO, HOWEVER,
WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 03-06Z. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE TOMORROW, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES INTO FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY. HOWEVER, IF PRECIP DOES LIFT SUFFICIENTLY
NORTH, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BRINGING SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THU...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS S-SW
WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ARE ONGOING ACROSS OUR AREA
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. DONT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT DO EXPECT INCREASING SW'RLY FLOW FRI WITH SW'RLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING CLOSER TO 3-5 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL NOTE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE AT
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR WATERS AS WELL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY ENHANCED
WINDS AND SEAS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS AREA
WATERS TOMORROW EVENING WITH N TO NELY WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND COULD SEE UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...OJC/MS
MARINE...MS/RCF
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