490
FXUS62 KMHX 091100
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS WEEKEND, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH ON SUNDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 7 AM FRI...NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH AM UPDATE. AREA OF
STRATIFORM RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYING OVERNIGHT MCS IS
MOVING INTO THE WRN COASTAL PLAIN, SO THE HIGHER POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. NO THUNDER EXPECTED
WITH THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY.
PREV DISC... AS OF 4 AM FRI...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND WILL PARTIALLY ABSORB A CUT
OFF LOW SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH A TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS CONT TO MOVE THROUGH CTRL NC
EXPANDING TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THINKING THAT THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN, AND AT THE
LEAST WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
MORNING. WHETHER CLOUDS CAN COMPLETELY CLEAR IS VERY MUCH IN
QUESTION, AND WILL DICTATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CAM'S HAVE BACKED OFF ON CAPE VALS AND
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, AND LATEST NCAR SEVERE PROBS HAVE FOLLOWED
SUITE, WITH PROBS FOR SEVERE DOWN TO AROUND 10% OR SO. DESPITE
AN UPGRADE TO SLGHT RISK FOR SOME PARTS OF ENC, AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL THAT MORE THAN A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
WILL OCCUR. HRRR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING ML CAPE
VALS OF 500-1000 J/KG, DOWN FROM YESTERDAY'S VALS. WITH EFF
SHEAR OF 35-45 KT TODAY, THERE IS SOME RISK OF SEVERE IF THE SUN
CAN MAKE A STRONG COMEBACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT,
TO NO HIGHER THAN THE LOW 80S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 4 AM FRI...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE
COAST EARLY THIS EVENING, QUICKLY PUTTING AN END TO THE PRECIP,
AND AREA EXPECTED TO DRY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL COOL DOWN TO THE MID/UPR 50S
INTERIOR TO LOW 60S COAST, WITH SKIES BECOMING MO CLEAR TOWARDS
SUNRISE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 AM FRI...THE LONG TERM WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING OVER THE CAROLINAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA, BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A SECOND CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE GULF LOW SLOWLY
LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK AND RIDGING
RETURNS BEHIND IT.
AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE, STALLING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND LINGERING THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH. A DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF OUR
AREA DRY TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY SUN MORNING AS STALLED FRONT WOBBLES NORTHWARD AND
OVERRUNING PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION - BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF
US 70. DREARY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH ONGOING ON-AND-OFF
SHOWERS WHILE FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY NEAR 250 J/KG, ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT IS SHARP AND ITS EXACT PLACEMENT REMAINS A POINT OF
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, AND FOR THAT REASON KEPT THUNDER OUT OF
THE GRIDS FOR NOW. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND BELOW AVERAGE, IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ESPECIALLY INLAND.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING AND
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IN TANDEM
WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF NC 17 WHILE THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY
LIFTS NORTH. HEAVIEST RAINFALL STILL LOOKS MOST LIKELY MON
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
(WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING PWATS AROUND 2", WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MID-MAY). THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A WIDESPREAD HALF
INCH TO INCH OF NEEDED RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST
1-2" IN A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO.
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, PUTTING ENC
FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME
PRECIPITATION PATTERN RETURNS AT THE POINT, WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER
COLUMN BUT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.
THURSDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH MORNING TODAY, WITH DRYING LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR, THEN A STORM THREAT WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH PERHAPS A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM. FOR NOW, DUE TO EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING IDEAL DESTABILIZATION, WILL ONLY
ADVERTISE A PROB30 FOR THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING, RAIN THREAT ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH BUT REMAINING LIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH, ALTHOUGH
RISK OF SHOWERS LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM FRI...SSWRLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS AND SEAS BUILDING CLOSER TO 3-5 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WILL NOTE THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE AT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY ENHANCED
WINDS AND SEAS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH, AND INC TO 15-20 KT,
WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND NORTH OF HATTERAS, AND SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO
6 FT. WILL HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PERSISTENCE OF THESE WINDS AND SEAS MORE THAN A FEW HOURS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...MAIN PERIODS OF CONCERN FOR MARINE
INTERESTS ARE SATURDAY WHERE POST-FRONTAL SURGE MAY RESULT IN AN
ONGOING RISK OF 6+ FOOT SEAS FOR FAR OUTER WATERS OVER THE GULF
STREAM. OTHER PERIOD IS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH SE WINDS OF
15-20 KT, PEAKING TUES AFT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FEET SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...TL/MS
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