592
FXUS62 KMHX 091843
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
243 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS WEEKEND, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH ON SUNDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM FRI...
*KEY MESSAGE*: SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE MAIN POTENTIAL
HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
CONDITIONS HAVE REBOUNDED FROM A COOL, CLOUDY, AND SHOWERY
MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS NOW PRESENT AND TEMPS UP
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS ENC. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALONG THIS FRONT, SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS SOON EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE CHANCE TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AT OR AROUND 40 KTS. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY REALIZED, AS
WELL AS PRESENCE OF SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS NE NC. BY EARLY TONIGHT ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS
THE FRONT REACHES THE COAST, AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LIKELY
INLAND, AND LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 3 PM FRI...COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
NC TOMORROW, AND PUSH OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH.
RAIN-FREE AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BUT
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM SW
TO NE AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. WE'LL HAVE MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S ACROSS NE NC AND THE OBX TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH OF US
70.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 3 PM FRI...THE LONG TERM WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING OVER THE CAROLINAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA, BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A SECOND CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE GULF LOW SLOWLY
LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK AND RIDGING
RETURNS BEHIND IT.
AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE, STALLING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND LINGERING THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH. A DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DREARY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH
ONGOING ON-AND-OFF SHOWERS WHILE FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY NEAR 250 J/KG, ALTHOUGH
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS SHARP AND ITS EXACT PLACEMENT
REMAINS A POINT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, AND FOR THAT REASON
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND BELOW
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ESPECIALLY INLAND.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING AND
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IN TANDEM
WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF NC 17 WHILE THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY
LIFTS NORTH. HEAVIEST RAINFALL STILL LOOKS MOST LIKELY MON
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
(WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING PWATS AROUND 2", WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MID-MAY). THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A WIDESPREAD HALF
INCH TO INCH OF NEEDED RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST
1-2" IN A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO.
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, PUTTING ENC
FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME
PRECIPITATION PATTERN RETURNS AT THE POINT, WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER
COLUMN BUT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.
THURSDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE, AND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN AND AROUND
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WHERE
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ENC.
CEILINGS WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3500-5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVERNIGHT (ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS). NICE FLYING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN
AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH,
ALTHOUGH RISK OF SHOWERS LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY 10-20 KTS OUT OF THE SW, WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT SHARPLY
TO THE N AT 15-20 KTS WITH A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY, THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH OR
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SCA ISSUANCE. SEAS COULD
BRIEFLY TOUCH 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS, BUT WILL BE MOSTLY
3-5 FT OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WINDS WILL BE N AT 10-15 KTS IN THE
MORNING AND THEN VEER TO THE NE/E IN THE AFTERNOON AT 5-15 KTS,
WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MAIN PERIODS OF CONCERN FOR MARINE
INTERESTS WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH SE WINDS OF
15-25 KT, PEAKING TUES AFT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FEET.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...SGK/MS
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