409
FXUS62 KMHX 261115
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
715 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST THIS MORNING
AND MEANDERS AROUND THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK, WITH AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MAY FINALLY
BUILD INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 705 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO
TRACK ACROSS ENC ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE DAY TODAY, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS ENC TODAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE,
STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE LITTLE WHILE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS E'WARDS
FURTHER OFFSHORE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 250-500 J/KG
OF MUCAPE PRIMARILY ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF ENC. WITH 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALSO IN PLACE, EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. EVEN
WITH MUCH OF THE THUNDER THREAT RELEGATED TO OUR OFFSHORE
WATERS, WITH PW'S GENERALLY AROUND 1.5-2.0 INCHES THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HAVE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES SO COULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS ENC THIS MORNING. MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE AROUND 1/2-1" OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THIS, AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DEEPENS,
EXPECT NE'RLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS ENC AS WELL WITH
WIDESPREAD 15-20 MPH WIND GUSTS INLAND AND 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST AND OBX THIS AFTERNOON. LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE AND
PRECIP CHANCES TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BUT AS THIS OCCURS, A CAD WEDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 TODAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY... STALLED FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
ENC AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES RATHER LOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP'S NOTED ALONG OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING, THOUGH EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POP'S TONIGHT AS LITTLE TO NO LIFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION. EITHER WAY, CONTINUED LOW CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING TEMPS FROM DECREASING TOO
MUCH AS LOWS GET INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 AM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER LINGERS FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH SLIDES
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, DRAGGING THE SURFACE FRONT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL
DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST/MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH SOME
MODELS (GFS) SHOWING GREATER CHANCES OF RAIN ON TUESDAY AND OTHER
MODELS (EURO) SHOWING GREATER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, HAVE AT
LEAST CHANCE-TO-LIKELY POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE TUESDAY, WITH MAX
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S. HIGHS THEN WARM TO NEAR 80
WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.
THURSDAY - MONDAY: A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST IS
FORECAST TO BECOME RE-INTEGRATED WITH THE MAIN POLAR JET TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SEPARATE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD, A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN US WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE NEW ENGLAND
VICINITY. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH ENC LATE IN
THE WEEK/EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. WHILE NOTABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL REMAIN BETWEEN GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EXACT PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT, CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR WET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SOME DRIER WEATHER TO ENC FOR
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WARM UP INTO THE LOW 80S THURSDAY -
SATURDAY. TEMPS WARM FURTHER INTO THE MID-80S FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 710 AM MONDAY...WE CURRENTLY RUN THE GAMBIT ON CONDITIONS
ACROSS ENC THIS MORNING AS A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
PERSIST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ALONG OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS NOTED FROM
ABOUT HWY 264 SOUTH. WHILE CEILINGS HAVEN'T LOWERED AS QUICKLY
AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, WITH RAIN BRINGING LOWER CEILINGS AND
VIS ACROSS THE AREA NOW AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW, EXPECT A
CAD SETUP TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THESE
SUB VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE TONIGHT AS THE
CAD SETUP REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS ENC PROMOTING LOW CLOUDS AT
ALL TERMINALS.
NE WINDS STRENGTHEN TODAY AND COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
INLAND AND 25-30 KT ALONG THE COAST AND OBX THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA MON EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND PRECIP CHANCES TO BE ON THE DECREASE WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA BEING PRECIP FREE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
HAVE ONGOING SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURING
ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW AND STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH HAS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE ONGOING 5-15 KT NE-E'RLY WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS PERSIST
ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS MORNING, THOUGH THIS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH DEEPENS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AROUND
DAYBREAK WITH NE WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
10-20 KT NE'RLY WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CROATAN, ROANOKE, AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS AS WELL AS
THE PAMLICO/PUNGO AND ALLIGATOR RIVERS TODAY, BUT THE DURATION
WILL BE SHORT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AN SCA ACROSS THESE WATERS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5-8 FT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SO LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF IMPROVEMENT OF THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER. WINDS
DECREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KTS (GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS) ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH. WAVES WILL ALSO SUBSIDE TO 4-
6 FT TUESDAY, BUT SCA CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10-15 KTS (GUSTS 15-20) AND WAVES FURTHER
SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS (GUSTS
OF 15-20) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH WAVES
GENERALLY 2-4 FEET.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...RCF/ZC
MARINE...RCF/ZC
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