367
FXUS62 KMHX 261335
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
935 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST THIS MORNING
AND MEANDERS AROUND THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK, WITH AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MAY FINALLY
BUILD INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 935 AM MON...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING, AS LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE DAY TODAY, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS ENC WHILE AT THE SURFACE, STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE LITTLE WHILE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS E'WARDS FURTHER
OFFSHORE. AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DEEPENS, EXPECT NE'RLY WINDS TO
INCREASE ACROSS ENC AS WELL WITH WIDESPREAD 15-20 MPH WIND GUSTS
INLAND AND 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AND OBX THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO GRAD LOWER THROUGH THE DAY,
THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING
ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE AND PRECIP CHANCES TO DECREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. BUT AS THIS OCCURS, A CAD WEDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70
TODAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY... STALLED FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
ENC AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES RATHER LOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP'S NOTED ALONG OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING, THOUGH EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POP'S TONIGHT AS LITTLE TO NO LIFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION. EITHER WAY, CONTINUED LOW CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING TEMPS FROM DECREASING TOO
MUCH AS LOWS GET INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 AM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER LINGERS FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH SLIDES
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, DRAGGING THE SURFACE FRONT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL
DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST/MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH SOME
MODELS (GFS) SHOWING GREATER CHANCES OF RAIN ON TUESDAY AND OTHER
MODELS (EURO) SHOWING GREATER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, HAVE AT
LEAST CHANCE-TO-LIKELY POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE TUESDAY, WITH MAX
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S. HIGHS THEN WARM TO NEAR 80
WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.
THURSDAY - MONDAY: A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST IS
FORECAST TO BECOME RE-INTEGRATED WITH THE MAIN POLAR JET TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SEPARATE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD, A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN US WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE NEW ENGLAND
VICINITY. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH ENC LATE IN
THE WEEK/EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. WHILE NOTABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL REMAIN BETWEEN GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EXACT PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT, CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR WET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SOME DRIER WEATHER TO ENC FOR
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WARM UP INTO THE LOW 80S THURSDAY -
SATURDAY. TEMPS WARM FURTHER INTO THE MID-80S FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM MONDAY...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS THIS MORNING,
RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ALONG OUR
NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
NOTED FROM ABOUT HWY 264 SOUTH. WHILE CEILINGS HAVEN'T LOWERED
AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, WITH RAIN BRINGING LOWER
CEILINGS AND VIS ACROSS THE AREA NOW AND A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A
DEPARTING LOW, EXPECT A CAD SETUP TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THESE SUB VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE TONIGHT AS THE CAD SETUP REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
ENC PROMOTING LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS.
NE WINDS STRENGTHEN TODAY AND COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
INLAND AND 25-30 KT ALONG THE COAST AND OBX THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA MON EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND PRECIP CHANCES TO BE ON THE DECREASE WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA BEING PRECIP FREE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
LATEST OBS SHOW NE-E WINDS 15-25 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY AS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH
DEEPENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET WITH NE WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT AND GUSTS UP TO
30 KT. 10-20 KT NE'RLY WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CROATAN, ROANOKE, AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS AS
WELL AS THE PAMLICO/PUNGO AND ALLIGATOR RIVERS TODAY, BUT THE
DURATION WILL BE SHORT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AN SCA ACROSS THESE
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5-8
FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SO LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF IMPROVEMENT OF THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS OUR
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER. WINDS
DECREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KTS (GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS) ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH. WAVES WILL ALSO SUBSIDE TO 4-
6 FT TUESDAY, BUT SCA CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10-15 KTS (GUSTS 15-20) AND WAVES FURTHER
SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS (GUSTS
OF 15-20) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH WAVES
GENERALLY 2-4 FEET.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...CQD/RCF/ZC
MARINE...CQD/RCF/ZC
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