510
FXUS62 KMHX 262000
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
400 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MID
WEEK, AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY FINALLY BUILD INTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM MON...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC COAST, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE AND PRECIP
CHANCES TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND/OR PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT,
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW AN UPTICK
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN MAY SEE INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LIGHT QPF AMTS EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS FALLING TO 55-60 DEG.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
AS OF 245 PM MON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE
REGION, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC GRAD
SLIDES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OH VALLEY,
ALLOWING SFC FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, PRECIP AND EASTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S, THOUGH SOME SPOTS INLAND MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
MID 60S. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WITH WEAK CAD STILL
IN PLACE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 4 PM MON...UPDATE: HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND, AS
26/12Z GUIDANCE QUICKER WITH FROPA LATE FRI, WITH LEE SIDE
CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE KEEPING POPS 20% OR LESS SAT AND
BEYOND. HAVE ADJUSTED GENERALLY LOWER THAN NBM BEYOND WED, AS
CONVECTIVE PATTERN SUGGESTS PRECIP MORE SCT IN NATURE AND
PEAKING DURING THE DIURNAL CYCLE, WITH LESSER CHANCES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SVR POTENTIAL FRI, AS
LATEST ECM INDICATING ROBUST SHORTWAVE WITH SFC LOW SWINGING
THROUGH CTRL NC.
AS OF 330 AM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER LINGERS FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIEST/MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN. FOR NOW, HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE-
TO-LIKELY POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS THEN WARM TO NEAR
80 WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY.
THURSDAY - MONDAY: A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST IS
FORECAST TO BECOME RE-INTEGRATED WITH THE MAIN POLAR JET TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SEPARATE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD, A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN US WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE NEW ENGLAND
VICINITY. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH ENC LATE IN
THE WEEK/EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. WHILE NOTABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL REMAIN BETWEEN GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EXACT PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT, CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR WET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SOME DRIER WEATHER TO ENC FOR
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WARM UP INTO THE LOW 80S THURSDAY -
SATURDAY. TEMPS WARM FURTHER INTO THE MID-80S FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD, THOUGH MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR IFR LATE
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NE-ENE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, THOUGH WILL STAY MIXED OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET INTO TUESDAY
LATEST OBS SHOW NE-E WINDS 15-25 KT AND SEAS 3-6 FT NORTH OF
HATTERAS AND 4-7 FT SOUTH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAINED
STALLED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW MODERATE TO GUSTY ACROSS
THE WATERS WITH ELEVATED SEAS, MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
SEAS WILL PEAK AT 6-9 FT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT. E WINDS 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE TUE. SCAS
CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER. SCA
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10-15 KTS (GUSTS 15-20) AND WAVES FURTHER
SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
(GUSTS OF 15-20) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
WITH WAVES GENERALLY 2-4 FEET.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL/ZC
AVIATION...CQD/ZC
MARINE...CQD/ZC
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