654
FXUS62 KMHX 270529
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
129 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MID
WEEK, AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY FINALLY BUILD INTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 115 AM TUE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON
THIS UPDATE AS THINGS ARE TRACKING RELATIVELY WELL AS A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WHILE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
PREV DISC...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN TONIGHT AS
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE SC COAST, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID- ATLANTIC. SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BUT RATHER EXPANSIVE
AREA OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF ENC AND WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
DRY AIR EVENTUALLY EDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. WE MAY
SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. LIGHT QPF AMTS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT, WITH
LOWS FALLING TO 55-60 DEG.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
AS OF 245 PM MON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE
REGION, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC GRAD
SLIDES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OH VALLEY,
ALLOWING SFC FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, PRECIP AND EASTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S, THOUGH SOME SPOTS INLAND MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
MID 60S. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WITH WEAK CAD STILL
IN PLACE.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 4 PM MON...UPDATE: HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND, AS
26/12Z GUIDANCE QUICKER WITH FROPA LATE FRI, WITH LEE SIDE
CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE KEEPING POPS 20% OR LESS SAT AND
BEYOND. HAVE ADJUSTED GENERALLY LOWER THAN NBM BEYOND WED, AS
CONVECTIVE PATTERN SUGGESTS PRECIP MORE SCT IN NATURE AND
PEAKING DURING THE DIURNAL CYCLE, WITH LESSER CHANCES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SVR POTENTIAL FRI, AS
LATEST ECM INDICATING ROBUST SHORTWAVE WITH SFC LOW SWINGING
THROUGH CTRL NC.
AS OF 330 AM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER LINGERS FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIEST/MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN. FOR NOW, HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE-
TO-LIKELY POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS THEN WARM TO NEAR
80 WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY.
THURSDAY - MONDAY: A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST IS
FORECAST TO BECOME RE-INTEGRATED WITH THE MAIN POLAR JET TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SEPARATE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD, A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN US WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE NEW ENGLAND
VICINITY. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH ENC LATE IN
THE WEEK/EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. WHILE NOTABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL REMAIN BETWEEN GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EXACT PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT, CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR WET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SOME DRIER WEATHER TO ENC FOR
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WARM UP INTO THE LOW 80S THURSDAY -
SATURDAY. TEMPS WARM FURTHER INTO THE MID-80S FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUE...PRIMARILY VFR CEILINGS AND VIS ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED ACROSS JUST ABUT ALL OF ENC WITH JUT SOME ISOLATED AREAS
OF MVFR CEILINGS NOTED AROUND DUPLIN COUNTY AS OF THIS UPDATE.
WITH DRIER AIR MAYBE MAKING ITS WAY SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED HAVE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 8-11Z THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS HANGING
AROUND DUPLIN COUNTY OR POINTS JUST SOUTH AND WEST. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AS WELL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE WE OFFICIALLY DRY OUT AS WELL THOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES LITTLE INTO TOMORROW EVENING, THOUGH A
DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD ENC FROM SW TO NE
TUE MORNING WITH IFR CEILINGS LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONCE IFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE AREA HOWEVER,
THEY SHOULD STICK AROUND FROM MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE EVENING
TUE NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THIS INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL WITH THE THUNDER
THREAT GRADUALLY INCREASING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE CRYSTAL COAST
AND OBX LATE TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY AT
5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KTS TUE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET INTO TUESDAY
LATEST OBS SHOW NE-E WINDS 15-25 KT AND SEAS 3-6 FT NORTH OF
HATTERAS AND 4-7 FT SOUTH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAINED
STALLED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW MODERATE TO GUSTY ACROSS
THE WATERS WITH ELEVATED SEAS, MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
SEAS WILL PEAK AT 6-9 FT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT. E WINDS 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE TUE. SCAS
CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER. SCA
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10-15 KTS (GUSTS 15-20) AND WAVES FURTHER
SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
(GUSTS OF 15-20) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
WITH WAVES GENERALLY 2-4 FEET.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/MS/RCF
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL/ZC
AVIATION...RCF/ZC
MARINE...MS/ZC
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