274
FXUS62 KMHX 271116
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
716 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON WED. AT THE SAME TIME, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH EVENTUALLY LIFTING
NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT AND MOVES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE REGION. THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE OTHER FRONTS IMPACT THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE MAY FINALLY BUILD INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE
WEEKEND FINALLY BRINGING MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 7 AM TUE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON THIS
UPDATE AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER ENC THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE DEEP SOUTH IS RIDING E'WARDS ALONG A
STALLED FRONT AND WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO WED. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HEAVIER RAIN
WELL TO THE WEST IN SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY PUSH TOWARDS THE CWA BY
ABOUT MIDDAY.
EXPECTING ANOTHER CLOUD FILLED AND DREARY DAY AHEAD FOR ENC
GIVEN THE PATTERN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE
REGION, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY, ALLOWING STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG THIS FRONT AND DEEPENS. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL GRAD OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
BY THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
INSTABILITY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY TODAY AS WE REALLY
DON'T ADVECT ANY INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNSET SO
TOOK ANY THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH 8PM.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, PRECIP AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, THOUGH
SOME SPOTS INLAND MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM TUE...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST
TRACKS NE'WARDS DRAGGING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ADVECT SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MUCAPE VALUES NEARING 500-1000 J/KG. PW'S WILL SURGE TO
1.5-2.0 INCHES ACROSS ENC TONIGHT AS SE'RLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. AT
THE SAME TIME, WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NE'WARDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW AND FRONT
INCREASING IN INTENSITY AS THE EVENING GOES ON. WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY, EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO APPEAR, AND
WHILE WE CURRENTLY DON'T THINK THERE IS A HIGH SEVERE THREAT
CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM, ESPECIALLY AS WE NEAR DAYBREAK
WED. STRONGEST STORMS WOULD BRING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND A
WATERSPOUT THREAT OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IN
ADDITION TO THIS, GIVEN THE DEEP MOIST COLUMN OF AIR ACROSS ENC
TONIGHT, WHILE THE THREAT IS RATHER LOW, COULD SEE SOME PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HYDRO ISSUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR MORE
URBAN AREAS. IN GENERAL EXPECTING 1-2" TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE RAINFALL CAN TRAIN OVER ITSELF. LOWS
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN DON'T CHANGE MUCH GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...
UPDATE: HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND, AS
26/12Z GUIDANCE QUICKER WITH FROPA LATE FRI, WITH LEE SIDE
CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE KEEPING POPS 20% OR LESS SAT AND
BEYOND. HAVE ADJUSTED GENERALLY LOWER THAN NBM BEYOND WED, AS
CONVECTIVE PATTERN SUGGESTS PRECIP MORE SCT IN NATURE AND
PEAKING DURING THE DIURNAL CYCLE, WITH LESSER CHANCES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SVR POTENTIAL FRI, AS
LATEST ECM INDICATING ROBUST SHORTWAVE WITH SFC LOW SWINGING
THROUGH CTRL NC.
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER LINGERS FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER.
WEDNESDAY: WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TOMORROW MORNING WITH HEAVY RAIN ONGOING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND THE OUTER BANKS. PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES MORE
SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON. FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND TEMPERATURES RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE LOW 80S.
THURSDAY - MONDAY: A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST IS
FORECAST TO BECOME RE-INTEGRATED WITH THE MAIN POLAR JET TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SEPARATE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD, A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN US WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE NEW ENGLAND
VICINITY. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH ENC LATE IN
THE WEEK/EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE
ON TIMING OF HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON FRIDAY, AND RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME MODEST SEVERE RISK; THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SOME DRIER
WEATHER TO ENC FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WARM UP INTO
THE LOW 80S THURSDAY - SATURDAY. TEMPS WARM FURTHER INTO THE
MID-80S FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM TUE...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS ENC THIS MORNING AS CAD WEDGE REMAINS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DON'T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE WITH
THE CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING
LOW ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS,
IFR CEILINGS BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE IFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE
AREA HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THIS, INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL WITH THE THUNDER
THREAT GRADUALLY INCREASING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE CRYSTAL COAST
AND OBX LATE TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY AT
5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KTS TUE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 705 AM TUE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MARINE HAZARDS
THIS MORNING. TOOK DOWN THE SCA THAT WAS VALID UNTIL 8PM ACROSS
THE PAMLICO SOUND AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW 25 KTS HERE
AT LEAST DURING THE DAY. BUT, THEN REPLACED THAT SMALL CRAFT
WITH ANOTHER WHICH BEGINS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREV DISC...CURRENTLY, WIDESPREAD NE-E WINDS AT 10-20
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS ARE ONGOING ACROSS OUR
WATERS, WHILE 5-8 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET, WITH 3-5 FT SEAS LOCATED NORTH OF OREGON
INLET. AS A RESULT CURRENTLY HAVE SCA'S ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND
AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THIS MORNING. EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH.
WINDS COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH ACROSS THE PAMLICO TODAY TO END THE
CURRENT SCA. HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT, STALLED FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR WINDS
TO BECOME SE'RLY ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS AND INCREASE TO 10-20
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS PRIMARILY ALONG THE LARGER SOUNDS
AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE PAMLICO SOUND ONCE
AGAIN BEING PLACED UNDER A SCA. EITHER WAY CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE INTO WED MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
ALLOWING FOR AN EXPANSION OF SCA'S TO OUR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SHORTER LIVED ACROSS THE
INLAND RIVERS AND NORTHERN SOUNDS SO DON'T PLAN ON ISSUING ANY
SCA'S ACROSS THESE WATERS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS
AND SEAS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS OUR
WATERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MON...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER. SCA
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 15-20
KTS (GUSTS 15-20) AND WAVES FURTHER SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS (GUSTS OF 15-20) ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH WAVES GENERALLY
2-4 FEET. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN SATURDAY AS NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...MS/RCF
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