296
FXUS62 KMHX 280853
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
453 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MULTIPLE FRONTS IMPACT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MAY FINALLY BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE WEEKEND FINALLY BRINGING MORE
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 330 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
- MONITORING HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS MORNING
- CONDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THIS MORNING
A COMPLICATED AND BUSY FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL SMALL
FEATURES BRINGING OUR WEATHER. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A FEW FLOOD
ADVISORIES AND EVEN A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN ONSLOW COUNTY AS A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM HAS BROUGHT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL
TO THE AREA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR DATA SHOW LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER ALONG THE COAST WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING OFF THE COAST AND SLOWLY TRACKING NORTH AND
EASTWARDS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS HOLDING ITS
GROUND SO FAR WHICH HAS IMPEDED THE PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT
AND THERE IS STILL A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT THIS WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE BEFORE THE WEDGE FINALLY
DISSIPATES LATE THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THIS, INCREASING
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD ENC FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A PLUME OF RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE (PWATS OF 1.75-2") IS
CURRENTLY NOTED OVER ENC, WHILE A SE'RLY LLJ IS HELPING TO
SUPPORT A PLUME OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF
250-750 J/KG NOW NOTED JUST OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST AS OF THIS
UPDATE. EXPECT THIS INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE TO GET PULLED NORTH
AND EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NO REAL CHANGES WITH THE
FORECAST THINKING THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COMBINATION OF DEEP LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE, INCREASING LIFT, AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE NOT ONLY A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST NE'WARDS TOWARDS THE S'RN
OBX BUT A THREAT FOR A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS SAME AREA AS WELL. INCREASING SERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
CURVATURE, WITH SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY RISK
LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES. TEMPS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT PERSISTING IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
AS WE GET FURTHER INTO TODAY, MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NOTED IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL TRACK OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ONGOING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES.
AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON, LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WITH A LOW LEVEL
DRYSLOT PUSHING INTO ENC FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS ANY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE AND THE POP TREND NOTES THIS WITH SCHC TO CHC POP'S
NOTED ACROSS INLAND ENC BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND AS
WELL, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD OCCUR ALLOWING
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IN PREVIOUS
DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING
A BRIEF RESPITE BETWEEN FRONTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WE SEE
LOWER PRECIP CHANCES WHILE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
THIS THIS LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG THREAT
ESPECIALLY WITH A LIGHT BREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
AREA TO REMAIN MIXED. LOWS THIS EVENING GET INTO MID 60S TO LOW
70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 415 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES:
-UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
- DRIER CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A CUTOFF UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ROTATES OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN
NC. THIS SHOULD PUT THE AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND RELATIVELY DRY
ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASING BY THURSDAY EVENING. UPSTAIRS, THE UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO REJOIN THE POLAR JET AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
FORM AND DIG DEEPER THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER KY AND CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS INTO VA
WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL NOT ONLY
SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN PLAY AS SPC HAS THE AREA IN
A DAY 4 15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL
TO BE WORKED OUT, THE SYNOPTICS OF THE SYSTEM ARE IN PLACE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE QUESTION, HOWEVER, IS WILL THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BE OFFSHORE BY THEN.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY.
THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
ON SUNDAY MORNING BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY WHEN IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM
A FAIRLY MESSY AVIATION FORECAST IS ON TAP ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS ARE NOTED
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHES NE'WARDS. ACROSS OUR NE'RN
ZONES VFR CEILINGS AND VIS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED.
GENERAL EXPECTATION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY IS THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF THE SC/NC
BORDER WILL TRACK NE'WARDS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS CONTINUING
TO BRING A RAIN THREAT TO ENC THIS MORNING WITH EVEN A TSRA
THREAT, MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND S'RN OBX SO
KNJM/KNCA AND KMRH COULD SEE A FEW TSRA'S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS TO THE AREA. AS WE GET
INTO MID AND LATE MORNING LOW SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST ALLOWING THE RAIN AND THUNDER THREAT TO END FROM SW TO NE.
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL DRYING ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THIS DEPARTING
LOW, CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AROUND 18-21Z ACROSS MUCH OF ENC.
AFTERNOON TSRA MAY REDEVELOP, BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON IF THE
AIRMASS CAN RECOVER FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY. AS WE GET INTO
TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO REENTER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WED...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. VFR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK OF WATERSPOUTS AND
STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST CONTINUES TO
BRING WIDESPREAD 15-20 KT SE'RLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LARGER SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS.
AT THE SAME TIME WIDESPREAD 4-7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ALONG OUR
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. AS A RESULT ONGOING SCA'S PERSIST ACROSS
OUR COASTAL WATERS, PAMLICO SOUND, AND CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THIS, THUNDERSTORM RISK CONTINUES
TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
ONGOING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS THREAT SHOULD EXPAND
NORTH AND EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES BRINGING A THREAT FOR
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS AND WATERSPOUTS. THE GREATEST
RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ACT TO END THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS OUR WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME S TO SW'RLY
AS WELL BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WHILE WEAKENING WITH SW WINDS
AT 10-15 KTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO THIS, 4-7 FT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS WELL DOWN
TO 3-5 FT FROM S TO N. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SCA'S ACROSS OUR
INLAND SOUNDS AND SOUTHERN WATERS TO EXPIRE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. REST OF THE SCA'S SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE TONIGHT AS
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS LOWER FURTHER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WED...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 15-20 KTS (GUSTS 20-25) AND WAVES FURTHER
SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15
KTS (GUSTS OF 15-20) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH WAVES GENERALLY 2-4 FEET. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 455 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
- MONITORING A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING RISK THIS MORNING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NE'WARDS ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE'WARDS
AS THE DAY GOES ON. ALONG THIS LOWS TRACK, THERE IS EXPECTED TO
BE A SWATH OF ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES, WITH AN AREAL AVERAGE OF
1-3" OF RAIN. WITHIN THIS SWATH, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3-7" WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OFFSHORE BY LATE-MORNING. GIVEN THE
TRACK OF THE LOW, COUNTIES WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING
THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST
TO THE SOUTHERN OBX THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, MUCH
OF ENC IS RUNNING 200-400% OF NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION, WHICH
MAY HELP SUPPORT A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD RISK WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
158-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RTE/RCF
MARINE...RTE/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX
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