625
FXUS62 KMHX 281400
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MULTIPLE FRONTS IMPACT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE WEEKEND BRINGING MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 10 PM WED...FASTER PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE ERN
CWA, SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD FASTER. AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER, WHICH LOOKS TO STICK
AROUND LONGER NOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY AROUND ~30%, WITH ONLY ISO (20%) THUNDER
POSSIBLE DUE TO LIMITED AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECTED.
PREV DISC...AS OF 7 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
- MONITORING HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS MORNING
- CONDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THIS MORNING
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A SHIELD OF
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARDS OUT AHEAD OF A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE OF RAIN AND
STORMS IS GENERALLY AROUND THE 1-2" RANGE, BUT GIVEN THE FAST
MOTION OF THIS ACTIVITY, ONLY EXPECT SOME MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHIELD OF RAIN.
PREV DISC...A PLUME OF RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE (PWATS OF
1.75-2") IS CURRENTLY NOTED OVER ENC, WHILE A SE'RLY LLJ IS
HELPING TO SUPPORT A PLUME OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE
VALUES OF 250-750 J/KG NOW NOTED JUST OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST AS
OF THIS UPDATE. EXPECT THIS INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE TO GET
PULLED NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NO REAL
CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST THINKING THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A
COMBINATION OF DEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE, INCREASING LIFT,
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE NOT ONLY A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST NE'WARDS
TOWARDS THE S'RN OBX BUT A THREAT FOR A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS SAME AREA AS WELL. INCREASING
SERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
CURVATURE, WITH SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY RISK
LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES. TEMPS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT PERSISTING IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON, LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WITH A LOW LEVEL
DRYSLOT PUSHING INTO ENC FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS ANY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE AND THE POP TREND NOTES THIS WITH SCHC TO CHC POP'S
NOTED ACROSS INLAND ENC BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND AS
WELL, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD OCCUR ALLOWING
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IN PREVIOUS
DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING
A BRIEF RESPITE BETWEEN FRONTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WE SEE
LOWER PRECIP CHANCES WHILE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
THIS THIS LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG THREAT
ESPECIALLY WITH A LIGHT BREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
AREA TO REMAIN MIXED. LOWS THIS EVENING GET INTO MID 60S TO LOW
70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 415 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES:
-UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
- DRIER CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A CUTOFF UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ROTATES OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN
NC. THIS SHOULD PUT THE AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND RELATIVELY DRY
ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASING BY THURSDAY EVENING. UPSTAIRS, THE UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO REJOIN THE POLAR JET AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
FORM AND DIG DEEPER THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER KY AND CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS INTO VA
WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL NOT ONLY
SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN PLAY AS SPC HAS THE AREA IN
A DAY 4 15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL
TO BE WORKED OUT, THE SYNOPTICS OF THE SYSTEM ARE IN PLACE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE QUESTION, HOWEVER, IS WILL THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BE OFFSHORE BY THEN.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY.
THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
ON SUNDAY MORNING BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY WHEN IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS A MESSY AVIATION FORCAST IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS GOTTEN THROUGH ABOUT ALL THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
EWN. THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY END HERE WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR AS WELL. EXPECT ONGOING RAIN SHIELD AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS
MORNING REACHING THE OBX WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BRINGING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND IFR CEILINGS WITH IT.
GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG THE COAST TO TRACK NE'WARDS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS CONTINUING TO BRING A RAIN THREAT TO ENC THIS MORNING
WITH EVEN A TSRA THREAT, MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
S'RN OBX. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS
TO THE AREA. AS WE GET INTO MID AND LATE MORNING LOW SHOULD PUSH
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST ALLOWING THE RAIN AND THUNDER THREAT
TO END FROM SW TO NE. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL DRYING ALSO EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW, CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AROUND 18-21Z
ACROSS MUCH OF ENC. AFTERNOON TSRA MAY REDEVELOP, BUT IT WILL
DEPEND ON IF THE AIRMASS CAN RECOVER FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY.
AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO REENTER THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A THREAT FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WED...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. VFR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK OF WATERSPOUTS AND
STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST CONTINUES TO
BRING WIDESPREAD 15-20 KT SE'RLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LARGER SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS.
AT THE SAME TIME WIDESPREAD 4-7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ALONG OUR
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. AS A RESULT ONGOING SCA'S PERSIST ACROSS
OUR COASTAL WATERS, PAMLICO SOUND, AND CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THIS, THUNDERSTORM RISK CONTINUES
TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
ONGOING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS THREAT SHOULD EXPAND
NORTH AND EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES BRINGING A THREAT FOR
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS AND WATERSPOUTS. THE GREATEST
RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ACT TO END THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS OUR WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME S TO SW'RLY
AS WELL BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WHILE WEAKENING WITH SW WINDS
AT 10-15 KTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO THIS, 4-7 FT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS WELL DOWN
TO 3-5 FT FROM S TO N. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SCA'S ACROSS OUR
INLAND SOUNDS AND SOUTHERN WATERS TO EXPIRE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. REST OF THE SCA'S SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE TONIGHT AS
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS LOWER FURTHER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WED...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 15-20 KTS (GUSTS 20-25) AND WAVES FURTHER
SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15
KTS (GUSTS OF 15-20) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH WAVES GENERALLY 2-4 FEET. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 455 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
- MONITORING A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING RISK THIS MORNING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NE'WARDS ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE'WARDS
AS THE DAY GOES ON. ALONG THIS LOWS TRACK, THERE IS EXPECTED TO
BE A SWATH OF ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES, WITH AN AREAL AVERAGE OF
1-3" OF RAIN. WITHIN THIS SWATH, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3-7" WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OFFSHORE BY LATE-MORNING. GIVEN THE
TRACK OF THE LOW, COUNTIES WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING
THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST
TO THE SOUTHERN OBX THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, MUCH
OF ENC IS RUNNING 200-400% OF NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION, WHICH
MAY HELP SUPPORT A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD RISK WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
158-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RTE/RCF
MARINE...RTE/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX
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