163
FXUS62 KMHX 282233
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
633 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MULTIPLE FRONTS IMPACT THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 635 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR EARLY EVE UPDATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NE FORECAST NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND NEAR THE FRONT.
ISO/SCT SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
WANE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT, THE ATTENTION TURNS TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. MIXED
SIGNALS FROM GUIDANCE CONCERNING COVERAGE AND DENSITY. EARLIER
RAINS COUPLED WITH A STILL-MOIST BNDRY LAYER AND LIGHT/CALM
WINDS IN WAKE OF WEAK FROPA WOULD ACT TO CAUSE FOG TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WOULD ACT TO PROHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE HANDLED THE UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST A PATCHY
MENTION IN THE FCST GRIDS, WITH VSBYS NO LOWER THAN ~2SM ATTM.
LOWS STILL VERY MILD, WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 3 PM WED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY MORNING FOG, LOW STRATUS
WILL BURN OFF, BUT ATMS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SCT STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT TRAVERSING
THROUGH THE MID SOUTH WILL PROVIDE THE UPR SUPPORT FOR THIS,
WHILE INLAND PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR LOW
LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE. APPRECIABLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG COUPLED WITH EFF SHEAR OF 30+ KT WOULD
PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
WITH COVERAGE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST, WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCES DEEP INLAND AND FOR
LOCALES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE 30-40% CHANCES FOR THUNDER
INLAND, WITH 20% CTRL/SRN OBX/CRYSTAL COAST REGION. SEVERE
THREATS WOULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. HIGHS WARM AND MUGGY IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 415 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES:
-UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
- DRIER CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
80S.
FRIDAY...A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER KY AND CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS INTO VA WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL NOT ONLY SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BUT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
IN PLAY AS SPC HAS THE AREA IN A DAY 4 15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL TO BE WORKED OUT, THE
SYNOPTICS OF THE SYSTEM ARE IN PLACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION,
HOWEVER, IS WILL THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BE
OFFSHORE BY THEN.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY.
THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
ON SUNDAY MORNING BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY WHEN IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 635 PM WED...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT IS THE FOG/LOW STRATUS
POTENTIAL, WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LEANED
TOWARDS MVFR, THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR
AFTER 8Z...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING. ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 12Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SCT
TSRA AFTER 18Z THU AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WED...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. VFR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 635 PM WED...LATEST OBS SHOW S-SW WINDS 5-15 KT WITH SEAS
3-6 FT (HIGHEST NORTH OF OCRACOKE). LOW PRES DEPARTS OFFSHORE
AND WINDS HAVE BECOME SRLY TO SWRLY IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING NRLY AND IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE. LINGERING 4-7 FT SEAS FROM EARLIER SRLY WIND
SWELL WILL SUBSIDE FROM S TO N THIS EVENING, WITH ALL AREAS
NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS BELOW 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THU, WITH WINDS VEERING TO
EASTERLY OR SOUTHERLY (ONSHORE) AS LOCAL SEA AND SOUND BREEZES
DOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
HOWEVER, IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WED...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS (GUSTS OF
15-20) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH WAVES
GENERALLY 2-4 FEET. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RTE/RM/OJC
AVIATION...RTE/CQD/TL
MARINE...RTE/CQD/TL
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