632
FNUS72 KMHX 290949
FWSMHX
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK SWAMP FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
549 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 EDT ON MAY 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEWPORT AT (252)223-2328.
DISCUSSION.
ANY PATCHY FOG AROUND THE BURN SITE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM RISK THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS TWO ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
THE WILDFIRE SITE. THE FIRST WOULD BE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE, WITH THE SECOND COMING FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL NOT ONLY BRING A CHANCE
FOR A WETTING RAIN BUT FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS
WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS (40-60 MPH) AND HAIL. AS WE GET
INTO FRIDAY A RENEWED SEVERE THREAT WILL RETURN ESPECIALLY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BROKEN LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE ACTIVITY FRIDAY
WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS (POTENTIALLY 60+ MPH), LARGE HAIL,
AND AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR A BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADO. AFTER
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LOWERING
WETTING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, BUT BRINGING MORE BENIGN
WEATHER TO THE SITE.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE
MORNING.
VENT RATE...........MAX 32544 MPH-FT.
LVORI...............MAX 6.
ADI.................MAX 37.
STABILITY CLASS.....4.
SFC PRESSURE........29.97 TO 30.07 INHG.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........65 65 65 67 70 71 72 75 76 78 80 82
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP............67 68 69 72 76 79 81 82 82 82 82 81
RH..............93 93 90 84 76 72 67 65 67 67 69 72
20 FT WIND DIR..N NE NE E SE S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 5 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 9 9 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.4 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N NE NE NW SW SW SW SW S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 10 13 13
LVORI...........6 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
ADI.............3 6 6 7 8 15 24 27 30 32 37 33
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.3 3 4 5 6 12 19 27 29 30 33 27
SFC PRES (IN)...006 007 007 007 006 005 005 004 003 001 999 997
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS LIKELY LATE OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH.
VENT RATE...........MIN 3219 MPH-FT.
LVORI...............MAX 7.
ADI.................MIN 3.
STABILITY CLASS.....4.
SFC PRESSURE........29.84 TO 29.96 INHG.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........81 80 79 79 80 80 79 77 76 76 74 74
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
TEMP............79 78 76 75 73 72 71 70 70 69 68 68
RH..............77 76 82 84 90 93 97 97 97 97 97 97
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 9 7 10 9 9 9 12 10 9 12
LVORI...........3 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7
ADI.............26 7 6 3 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 5
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.21 13 7 3 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 5
SFC PRES (IN)...996 995 994 995 995 995 994 992 990 988 986 984
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING,
THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENT RATE...........MAX 80040 MPH-FT.
LVORI...............MAX 6.
ADI.................MAX 77.
STABILITY CLASS.....4.
SFC PRESSURE........29.65 TO 29.85 INHG.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........73 71 58 56 62 64
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC
TEMP............69 71 76 81 83 83
RH..............93 90 76 64 61 62
20 FT WIND......SW 3 SW 5 SW 7 SW 8 SW 9 SW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.5 14 14 14 14
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1400 2600 3800 3800 3500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 10 W 14 W 17 W 21 W 21 SW 21
LVORI...........6 4 3 1 1 1
ADI.............5 25 51 75 75 72
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.5 19 45 78 79 72
SFC PRES (IN)...29.84 29.85 29.84 29.80 29.75 29.68
FORECASTER...FUCHECK
REQUESTED BY...DAVID NELSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2514884.0/MHX
.DELDT 05/29/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL VICTORIA.PAYNE@USDA.GOV,DAVID.L.NELSON@USDA.GOV
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