126
FXUS62 KMHX 291114
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
714 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MULTIPLE
FRONTS IMPACT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING SEASONABLE AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 7 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON
THIS UPDATE AS EVERYTHING IS TRACKING RELATIVELY WELL. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DEBRIS CLOUDCOVER
COMING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS HAS KEPT MOST OF THE
AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST TO START OUR DAY.
FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY AS WE
HAVE A PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACK E'WARDS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, WHILE A SLOWER MOVING N'RN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS SE'WARDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN THE DEEP SOUTH PUSHES
E'WARDS AND EVENTUALLY NEARS THE CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING. AT
THE SURFACE, WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS
HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD DO LITTLE TO CURB TEMPS AND S'RLY FLOW
SHOULD ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARDS INTO ENC TODAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT TRAVERSING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY, WHILE INLAND PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE. HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30+ KT WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH COVERAGE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST INITIALLY, WITH A
SECONDARY THREAT COMING FROM AN E'WARD PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE STRONGEST
STORMS, SEVERE THREATS WOULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. IN ADDITION TO THIS, WITH PWAT'S LIKELY SURGING
TO ABOUT 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, A LOW END HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL ON PREVIOUS DAYS. LATEST HREF PROBS SHOW 20-40%
CHANCES OF PRECIP AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 3" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER DUPLIN AND PORTIONS OF ONSLOW. AS A
RESULT WPC HAS THE FAR WESTERN COASTAL PLAIN UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY IN CASE THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS DO
VERIFY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY
AS WE GET
INTO TONIGHT, OUR FOCUS BECOMES ON ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF ENC. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE
HINTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS COME IN FROM THE WEST AND TRACK ALONG
OUR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES FOR THE MOST PART BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE AREA. WHILE
INSTABILITY WANES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT; GENERALLY LOWERING TO
ABOUT 250-750 J/KG OF MUCAPE, ANY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA
COULD BRING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT WITH IT. OTHERWISE EXPECT LOWS TO GET INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY PM
- LOW PRECIP CHANCES (10-30%) LINGER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PM
- DRY, WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S.
FRIDAY (5/30):
MCS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF ENC IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
DEPARTING THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER
KY AND CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS INTO VA WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DRIVER OF ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL TREK ACROSS NC, REACHING THE CWA
FRIDAY EVENING.
IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, WE WILL FEEL THE CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION IMPACTS OF THE
PREVIOUS MCS, KEEPING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOWER. HOWEVER,
AS WE GET INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME
FOR INSTABILITY TO REBOUND DESPITE THE MCS PROGRESSION EARLIER
IN THE MORNING, AND WARM SECTOR ALLOWS MOISTURE TO BUILD UP
AGAIN AS WELL. MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG, PWATS AROUND 1.5",
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND 0-6 SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM, POTENTIALLY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, FORCING WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR, THERE IS A LIKELY SCENARIO WHERE WE REMAIN DRY AND
SUPERCELL FREE AS THE BEST FORCING IS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST, AND CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO OUR NORTH. FOR
THIS REASON, KEPT POPS AT SCHC/CHC FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
WE GET INTO THE EVENING, COLD FRONT FINALLY ENTERS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST, BRINGING THE FORCING NECESSARY FOR A WIDESPREAD
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP, UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR KEEPS TORNADO
CHANCES LOW, AND INCREASES CHANCES FOR BOWING SEGMENTS THAT
COULD RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.
LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH COASTAL AREAS BY LATE
EVENING, SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF OBX BY MIDNIGHT. IF THE LINE
SEGMENT BOWS OUT, IT IS POSSIBLE THE STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD
FASTER THAN FORECAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WE GET SOME DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
SATURDAY (5/31):
WHILE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE, PARENT LOW WILL MEANDER OVER
THE NE AS WE REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ALOFT.
SATURDAY, HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DISTURBANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THANKS TO
THE DRY AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF CONVECTION DID OCCUR DESPITE THE UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE, THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY264, COLLOCATED WITH THE BETTER FORCING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR WOULD BRING A RISK OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.
SUNDAY (6/1):
QUIET START TO THE DAY, BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPES PREVENT ANY THUNDER
MENTIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY.
MONDAY (6/2) - WEDNESDAY (6/4):
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION TO START THE WORK
WEEK AS RIDGING PORTION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK SHIFTS OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE AREA OF
RIDGING, WITH EACH DAY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS. BY WEDNESDAY
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY... HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS TO
START OUT OUR MORNING ACROSS ENC WITH ANYTHING RANGING FROM VFR
CEILINGS AND VIS (PRIMARILY INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE COAST) TO
MVFR/IFR (MAINLY ALONG THE OBX AND IMMEDIATE COAST AS A MIX OF
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REMAIN PREVALENT.
HIGH CIRRUS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST,
WITH ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUD COVER ALONG THE OBX LIFTING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE THIS OCCURS EXPECT VFR VIS AND CEILINGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER, AS AN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM RISK ALONG THE
SEABREEZE AND INCOMING STORMS FROM THE WEST COULD BRING A THREAT
FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH TSRA THREAT, CAPPED AT A PROB30 GROUP ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS (PRIMARILY BETWEEN 19Z-00Z). WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME S'RLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. ONCE WE
GET INTO TONIGHT, A THREAT FOR LOW CLOUDS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN,
PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z BEHIND WHATEVER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK ACROSS ENC THIS
EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVER, AND SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. VFR RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ENC TODAY AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN FRONTAL FEATURES
AT THE MOMENT. BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WINDS WILL
BECOME N'RLY ACROSS ALL WATERS AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO A S'RLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING. WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING CLOSER TO 10-15 KTS NEAR DAYBREAK ON FRI WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR
AROUND 3-5 FT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING THE AREA TO
REMAIN SCA FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT MAY BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY ENHANCED
WINDS AND SEAS TO OUR WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS
AND SEAS 4-7 FT LIKELY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL LATE FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WORK WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ
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