195
FXUS62 KMHX 292015
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
415 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MULTIPLE
FRONTS IMPACT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING SEASONABLE AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH TONIGHT
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPLICATED SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. WHAT IS MOST EVIDENT
IS A PAIR OF MCVS OVER ALABAMA AND GEORGIA, WHICH APPEAR WELL-
DEFINED ON REGIONAL RADAR. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, THERE IS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING, WHICH HAS
ESSENTIALLY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST GA. FURTHER NORTH, A WEAK WARM FRONT
IS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS, WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT STEADILY NORTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY, AND INTO THIS EVENING, SETTING UP A
REGIONALLY NARROW WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE
EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE TRANSIENT WARM SECTOR, BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 GENERAL CAMPS. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
DEPICTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEABREEZE
AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES, AND AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
BUILDS, WITH A FOCUS IN THE 2PM - 8PM TIMEFRAME. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
OF AROUND 30KT, MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000J/KG, AND MODEST FORCING
SUGGESTS A PULE-SEVERE RISK WITH THE SEABREEZE ACTIVITY.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH REGARDING DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SEABREEZE, BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LEAD
TO A LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER.
WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS SUSTAINED, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MCVS
AND THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ONE, OR MORE, CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH
PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE DIFFERS
THE MOST, WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES SURROUNDING THE TRACK OF ANY
COMPLEXES THAT DEVELOP. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSING THE MCS RISK ACROSS THE COAST OF SC/NC, WITH A RISK OF
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE REGARDING
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- RENEWED RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM TONIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY BE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE LAID OUT A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE
COLD POOL OR SOME SORT OF BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING.
MEANWHILE, A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A NOTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IS
FORECAST TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD
TO A GRADUAL RECOVER OF THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT'S
CONVECTION. ASSUMING THIS PLAYS OUT THIS WAY, THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TIME FOR AIRMASS RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION WITH AN AREA OF INCREASED LARGE-SCALE
FORCING. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL FORCING. GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND
THE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY, THEN QUICKLY GROWING
UPSCALE INTO ONE, OR MORE, MCS THANKS TO THE STRONG FORCING TIED
TO THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE MCS ACTIVITY IS THEN
FORECAST TO RACE EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, REACHING THE COAST
BETWEEN 7PM - 11PM FRIDAY EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND MCS
MAINTENANCE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING, THOUGH, THE MCS WOULD BE
REACHING THE COAST AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE.
GIVEN THE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING MAY NOT HAPPEN AS QUICK AS IT OTHERWISE WOULD IN A
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME, AND THIS MAY MAINTAIN SOME RISK OF
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS REACHING THE SFC INTO MUCH, IF NOT
ALL, OF ENC. THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE THE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS, A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY WEST WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PRECIP CHANCES (10-30%) LINGER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PM
- DRY, WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S.
SATURDAY (5/31):
WHILE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE, PARENT LOW WILL MEANDER OVER
THE NE AS WE REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ALOFT.
SATURDAY, HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DISTURBANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THANKS TO
THE DRY AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF CONVECTION DID OCCUR DESPITE THE UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE, THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY264, COLLOCATED WITH THE BETTER FORCING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR WOULD BRING A RISK OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.
SUNDAY (6/1):
QUIET START TO THE DAY, BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPES PREVENT ANY THUNDER
MENTIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY.
MONDAY (6/2) - WEDNESDAY (6/4):
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION TO START THE WORK
WEEK AS RIDGING PORTION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK SHIFTS OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE AREA OF
RIDGING, WITH EACH DAY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS. BY WEDNESDAY
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RISK OF TSRA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
- INCREASED RISK OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING
THE CIG AND TSRA FORECAST IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE ONE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY IS SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
IMPACTS FOCUSED FROM KOAJ TO KEWN. I LEFT PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR
ALL TAF SITES, BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OVERALL TSRA
PROBABILITY IS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR KISO AND KPGV. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS, LIKELY PRODUCING ONE, OR MORE, TSRA COMPLEXES
THAT WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THESE COMPLEXES, THOUGH, AND FOR
THIS REASON I'VE OPTED TO KEEP TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. REGARDLESS, A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
APPEARS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT ON FRIDAY, MIXING WILL DEEPEN, AND GUSTY SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVER, AND SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. VFR RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND
- INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE ENC WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY 5-15KT. THOSE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN STEADILY BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, PEAKING
FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME, IT'S
EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF 25KT+ WIND
GUSTS FOR MOST WATERS. IN LIGHT OF THIS EXPECTATION, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST WATERS FOR LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE PAMLICO AND NEUSE
RIVERS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN 25KT WINDS IS LOWER. FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS, SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
BUILD TO 4-7 FT ON FRIDAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IMPACTING THE NEW, NEUSE, AND
PAMLICO RIVERS. LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA, WITH THE GREATEST RISK
FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL WATERS. THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OF
40-50KT WINDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS
AND SEAS 4-7 FT LIKELY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL LATE FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WORK WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW-MOVING, AND COULD SUPPORT HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST PERSISTENT. THIS INTRODUCES AT LEAST A
LOW END FLASH FLOOD RISK, ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF ONSLOW, DUPLIN, AND WESTERN CARTERET COUNTIES
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24-36
HOURS. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THOSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FLOODING RISK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ131-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RM/RJ
HYDROLOGY...MHX
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