126
FXUS62 KMHX 301042
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
642 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING SEASONABLE AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP NOTED ALONG
DUPLIN AND ONSLOW COUNTIES PUSHING NE'WARDS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD EXIT THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS OUR MAIN FOCUS WILL BE AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BRING BREEZY SW'RLY WINDS AND
A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ENC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHIFT SE'WARDS INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME, A POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH AND ENTER INTO THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED
BY A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WILL PROMOTE AMPLE
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN KY TRACKING
ENE'WARDS INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC WHILE DEEPENING, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SW'WARDS TRACKING ACROSS ENC
TONIGHT.
OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, STRENGTHENING S'RLY FLOW AND A NOTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST
DAYTIME HEATING IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH PWATS OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES
ACROSS ENC AS WELL. AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO
ENC LATER THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 40-60 KTS. THIS WILL PROMOTE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH FORECAST
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WHAT THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
WILL BE AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
AND SHORTWAVE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY THEN
QUICKLY RACING E'WARDS AND MERGING INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS OR
MULTIPLE MCS'S AS THEY NEAR ENC. EXPECT STORMS TO REACH THE FAR
WESTERN CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN THE 3-7PM TIMEFRAME AND THEN AS
STORMS RACE E'WARDS, NEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 7-11PM FRIDAY
EVENING. OVERALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS (60+ MPH). THOUGH COULDN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HAIL AND
TORNADO THREAT WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AND AS A RESULT SPC
HAS KEPT THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY (LEVEL 2 OF 5). THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST. OTHERWISE HIGHS TODAY GET INTO
THE 80S ACROSS ENC WITH A MUGGY AFTERNOON EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY PUSH OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT
- SKIES RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RACE E'WARDS
LIKELY PUSHING OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT ENDING ANY LEFTOVER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT RATHER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
STILL BRING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEFORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT AS
LOWS GET INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS ENC TONIGHT WITH
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS NOTED AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT AS WELL BUT SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PRECIP CHANCES (10-30%) LINGER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PM
- SATURDAY CONVECTION COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE.
- DRY, WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S.
SATURDAY (5/31):
WHILE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE, PARENT LOW WILL MEANDER OVER
THE NE AS WE REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ALOFT.
SATURDAY, HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DISTURBANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING THANKS
TO THE DRY AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LEADING
TO LESS CONFIDENCE IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTORMS WOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 264, COLLOCATED
WITH THE BETTER FORCING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD
BRING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
SUNDAY (6/1):
QUIET START TO THE DAY, BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPES KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES LOWER SUNDAY.
MONDAY (6/2) - THURSDAY (6/5):
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK
AS RIDGING PORTION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE AREA OF RIDGING,
WITH EACH DAY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS. BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AS THE HIGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. THURSDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ALTHOUGH HIGH TO OUR EAST MAY SHIELD US
FROM PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RISK OF TSRA OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS
- INCREASED RISK OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING
HAVE A MIX OF VFR, MVFR, AND IFR CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS ENC
THIS MORNING WITH PGV/ISO SEEING IFR CEILINGS, OAJ SEEING MVFR
CEILINGS, AND EWN UNDER VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT A MIXED BAG OF VFR TO IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND
LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IFR
CEILINGS LIFT AROUND 13Z ACROSS ALL OF ENC WHILE MVFR CEILINGS
MAY HANG AROUND UNTIL 15/16Z. AFTERWARDS EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AND
VIS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NEXT THREAT FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH IT. CURRENTLY FORECAST THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
REACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE 5-9PM TIMEFRAME WITH
EASTERN TAF SITES AND OBX LIKELY SEEING STORMS CLOSER TO THE
7-11PM TIMEFRAME IF THEY WERE TO IMPACT THE SITES. PUT TEMPO
GROUPS IN FOR NOW FOR THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS ISO/PGV WITH TEMPO OR PREVAILING GROUPS LIKELY NEEDED FOR
ALL TAF SITES BY THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. WE THEN RAPIDLY CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. BREEZY SW'RLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN BRIEF DROPS TO SUB-VFR. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING FOG OR LOW STRATUS CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND
- INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
CURRENTLY HAVE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOTED
ACROSS OUR WATERS WITH 5-15 KT SW'RLY WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS
NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, PEAKING
FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. DURING THIS TIME,
IT'S EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF 25-30KT+
WIND GUSTS FOR MOST WATERS. IN LIGHT OF THIS EXPECTATION, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 3-5 FT THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN BUILD TO 4-7 FT ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WINDS INCREASE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AS WELL WHILE REMAINING ELEVATED
TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
OUTSIDE OF THE STRONG AMBIENT WINDS, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
ALL WATERS FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT WILL HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OF
40-50KT WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS
AND SEAS 4-6 FT CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ136.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ
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