316
FXUS62 KMHX 310139
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
939 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTER NC THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BRINGING AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE AND
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 2115 FRIDAY...
GREATEST CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING
THE AREA OFFSHORE TO THE E WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SLATED TO PUSH THROUGH
THE FA OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT, ONCE CONVECTION EXITS OFF THE NC
COAST, COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING I95 CORRIDOR, PUSHES
OFFSHORE IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT, DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH T/TDS FALLING INTO THE 50S INLAND, AND LOWER 60S
ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MOST LIKELY THREAT FROM DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
- FORECAST FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO LOW MOISTURE
MUCH OF SATURDAY WILL BE A DRY AND MILD DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXITING OFF OF THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA DEPENDING UPON THE
AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. BY LATE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH VA AND INTO NC AND WILL BE THE
CATALYST FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON TIMING WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS BEING THE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY, SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MOST LIKELY THREATS OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST.
IN FAVOR OF SEVERE WEATHER, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF BULK SHEAR IN
PLACE WITH 0-6 KM VALUES NEAR 40 KTS AND INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH NOT
OUTSTANDING SHOULD BE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BREAKING THAT DOWN A LITTLE
FURTHER THOUGH WE RUN INTO SOME PROBLEMS WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 5-6 DEG/KM. UPDRAFT HELICITY PAINTBALL PLOTS DO SHOW
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND 4 PM OR SO IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IF THERE IS
SOME SUSTAINED GROWTH, THEN THE THREAT FOR HAIL INCREASES AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 KFT. ON THE DAMAGING WIND SIDE OF
THINGS, DCAPE VALUES ARE GREATEST IN THE AFTERNOON BUT LACK OF
MOISTURE MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE, THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF MOISTURE
WILL BE THE BIGGEST INHIBITOR TO SEVERE WX DEVELOPMENT. BEHIND
THE FRONT PW VALUES ARE ONLY 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH. WHILE MODELS DUE
SHOW A SURGE OF 700 MB RH, IT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE
BEST INSTABILITY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT THE BEST JET
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN SOUTHERN VA ADD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF SEVERE WEATHER MAKING IT SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN
NC.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S.
SUNDAY (6/1):
QUIET START TO THE DAY, BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPES KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES LOWER SUNDAY.
MONDAY (6/2) - FRIDAY (6/6):
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK
AS RIDGING PORTION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE AREA OF RIDGING,
WITH EACH DAY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS. BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AS THE HIGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. THURSDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ALTHOUGH HIGH TO OUR EAST MAY SHIELD US
FROM PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1945 FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WORST CONVECTION PASSING COASTAL TERMINALS NOW
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE STATE, WILL
CROSS THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN. ONCE THIS MAIN BAND
OF CONVECTION PUSHES OFFSHORE, MORE ISO TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY STRIKE OF LIGHTNING OR TWO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES. SUBVFR ONLY POSSIBLE
IMMEDIATELY UNDER STORMS. DRYING TREND IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH SKC AND WINDS BECOMING MORE WERLY WITH GUSTS FALLING
OUT. SAT FEATURES GUSTY WERLY WINDS WITH DIURNAL CU AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
CROSS OVERNIGHT SAT. GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CATS WITH SUBVFR ONLY
EXPECTED UNDER STORMS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN BRIEF DROPS TO SUB-VFR. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD MONDAY- WEDNESDAY WILL BRING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING FOG OR LOW STRATUS CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...
AS OF 2130 FRIDAY...
# --- UPDATE --- # GREATEST BAND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUTSIDE
OF 20NM. MORE ISO STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SLATED TO CROSS THROUGH AREA WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE COASTAL WATERS AND EERN PAMSOUND AHEAD
OF FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW
- INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, SW WINDS ARE INCREASING, AND WILL SOON BE
20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL PEAK THIS EVENING AND
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT AT 25-30 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
35 KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE TOMORROW MORNING TO 15-25 KTS, BUT THEN
RESTRENGTHENING TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO SW 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-7 FT TONIGHT, AND THEN SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 4-6 FT TOMORROW.
OUTSIDE OF THE STRONG AMBIENT WINDS, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
WILL HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KT
WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...SCA CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS AND
SEAS 4-6 FT CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS
AND SEAS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-150-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/CEB
SHORT TERM...RTE/SGK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CEB/RJ
MARINE...SGK/CEB/RJ
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