017
FXUS62 KMHX 310701
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
301 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, WHILE
TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DELMARVA, WITH
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. MUCH
OF TODAY WILL BE DRY, SUNNY AND SEASONABLE, AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 50S. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH VA AND INTO
NC, SPARKING CONVECTIVE CHANCES. CAMS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...LIKELY BEGINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA AND PUSHING SSE INTO THE EVENING. SPC CONTINUES
TO OUTLOOK THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR IN PLACE (BULK SHEAR GREATER THAN 50
KT), THE LACK OF MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S) AND INSTABILITY
(ML CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG) MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL SVR
THREAT. WHILE MODELS DUE SHOW A SURGE OF 700 MB RH, IT MAY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE BEST INSTABILITY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
FACT THAT THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
VA ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF SEVERE WEATHER MAKING IT SOUTHWARD
INTO EASTERN NC. IF THERE IS SOME SUSTAINED GROWTH, THEN THE
THREAT FOR HAIL INCREASES AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE ONLY ABOUT 10
KFT. ON THE DAMAGING WIND SIDE OF THINGS, DCAPE VALUES ARE
GREATEST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN THE LIMITED MOISTURE MAY
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 255 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS EVENING.
STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE NE US AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC, WHILE WEAK ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION AND TROUGHING CONTINUES ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING, GRAD SINKING
SSE AND OFFSHORE BY LATE EVENING. ISO SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. CONVECTION LIKELY ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT, WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND LOW LEVEL NNW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND AND 60S FOR THE BEACHES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S.
SUNDAY (6/1):
QUIET START TO THE DAY, BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPES KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES LOWER SUNDAY.
MONDAY (6/2) - FRIDAY (6/6):
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK
AS RIDGING PORTION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE AREA OF RIDGING,
WITH EACH DAY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS. BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AS THE HIGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. THURSDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ALTHOUGH HIGH TO OUR EAST MAY SHIELD US
FROM PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN WITH CLOUDS
PUSHING OFFSHORE. BREEZY WSW WINDS TODAY, WITH GUSTS PEAKING
20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SVR WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING FOG OR LOW STRATUS CONCERNS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
LATEST OBS SHOW W WINDS 15-25 KT GUSTING 25-30 KT WITH SEAS 5-9
FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND 3-6 FT NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. W WINDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 15-25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS GRAD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT, BECOMING NNW EARLY SUN MORNING. SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS, SOUNDS AND NEUSE/BAY RVRS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, A FEW COULD BECOME STRONG TO SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
137-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ136.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ
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