312
FXUS62 KMHX 311354
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
954 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE NEXT WEEK, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 10 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DELMARVA, WITH
ATTENDANT SFC COLD NOW OFFSHORE. MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE DRY,
SUNNY AND SEASONABLE, AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE
50S. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH VA AND INTO NC, SPARKING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. CAMS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SCT SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LIKELY
BEGINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND PUSHING SSE
INTO THE EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX, WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR IN
PLACE (BULK SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KT), THE LACK OF MOISTURE
(DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S) AND INSTABILITY (ML CAPE VALUES LESS THAN
1000 J/KG) MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL SVR THREAT. WHILE MODELS DUE
SHOW A SURGE OF 700 MB RH, IT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE
BEST INSTABILITY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT THE BEST JET
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN SOUTHERN VA ADD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF SEVERE WEATHER MAKING IT SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN
NC. IF THERE IS SOME SUSTAINED GROWTH, THEN THE THREAT FOR HAIL
INCREASES AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 KFT. ON THE
DAMAGING WIND SIDE OF THINGS, DCAPE VALUES ARE GREATEST IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN THE LIMITED MOISTURE MAY INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
AS OF 255 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS EVENING.
STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE NE US AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC, WHILE WEAK ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION AND TROUGHING CONTINUES ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING, GRAD SINKING
SSE AND OFFSHORE BY LATE EVENING. ISO SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. CONVECTION LIKELY ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT, WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND LOW LEVEL NNW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND AND 60S FOR THE BEACHES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 430 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S.
SUNDAY (6/1):
QUIET START TO THE DAY, BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON WHEN THE SHORTWAVE
BRINGING CONVECTION ROLLS THROUGH. IF IT HAPPENS EARLIER IN THE
DAY (LIKE THE 00Z HRRR), STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PAIRED
WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD PROMOTE MULTICELL TO
MARGINALLY SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES WITH WIND THE PRIMARY
CONCERN, AND HAIL SECONDARY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL (1/5) OUTLOOK
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY TO COVER THIS THREAT. IF THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AFTER SUNSET, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE LESS IMPRESSIVE, DECREASING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
MONDAY (6/2) - FRIDAY (6/6):
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK
AS RIDGING PORTION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE AREA OF RIDGING,
WITH EACH DAY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS. BY THURSDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 90 INLAND AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, THURSDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ALTHOUGH HIGH TO OUR EAST MAY SHIELD US
FROM PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL HELP
FUNNEL GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BREEZY WSW WINDS TODAY, WITH GUSTS PEAKING 20-25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING FOG OR LOW STRATUS
CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
LATEST OBS SHOW W WINDS 15-25 KT GUSTING 25-30 KT WITH SEAS 4-8
FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND 3-6 FT NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. W WINDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 15-25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS GRAD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT, BECOMING NNW EARLY SUN MORNING. SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS, SOUNDS AND NEUSE/BAY RVRS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, A FEW COULD BECOME STRONG TO SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
137-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SGK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ
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