529
FXUS62 KMHX 311922
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE NEXT WEEK, INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.
WE'RE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THOUGH THE LIMITING FACTORS REMAIN (LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY) RECENT RADAR RETURNS OVER VA AND HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTH INTO NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STRONG WIND SHEAR AND LOWER FREEZING HEIGHTS INTRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IF STRONG STORMS DO FORM, WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, THOUGH THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOWER THE LATER WE GET INTO THE NIGHT. CONVECTION
ALONG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN TO LOW 60S ALONG
THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
AS OF 3 PM SAT...PLEASANT CONDITIONS PERSIST TOMORROW WITH
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. AFTERNOON MOISTURE RETURN OVER SC AND
INTERIOR NC WILL OOZE EASTWARD TOWARDS ENC LATE IN THE DAY, AND
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL PLAIN AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A LATE
DAY/EVENING SEVERE THREAT IF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS ADVERTISED,
AS THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT AND APPROACHING
MID LEVEL SUPPORT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION TO START THE WORK
WEEK AS RIDGING PORTION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK SHIFTS OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE AREA OF
RIDGING, WITH EACH DAY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS. BY THURSDAY
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 90 INLAND AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, THURSDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ALTHOUGH HIGH TO OUR EAST MAY
SHIELD US FROM PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
HELP FUNNEL GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW
WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING THE THREAT
OF TEMPORARY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS BUT THIS THREAT WILL END BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EACH
NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING FOG OR
LOW STRATUS CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS SW
WINDS REMAIN 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME
NW AT 10-15 KTS, AND WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THE REST OF
TOMORROW MORNING. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING S AT 5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 4-6
FT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
137-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SGK/RJ
MARINE...SGK/RJ
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